3859 State Street Rd · Skaneateles, NY 13152

$399,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1890 7,405 sqft lot Est $414k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your opportunity to get into the award winning Skaneateles school district for what you might pay in rent with a home with many new updates! This home is in close proximity to the Skaneateles Community Center and downtown village center is only a 20 minute walk. The first floor features a large mudroom, living room, 1 bedroom with closet, large dining area, and a new kitchen and stainless steel appliances. The upstairs includes 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The second bedroom could be made into a large walk in closet which would then make the entire second level a huge master suite. The detached 18'x16' garage was turned into a studio space and has tons of potential! It can be used as an art studio, office, theater, man cave, she shed, bunk room for an airbnb property. Notable features: New kitchen and appliances, freshly painted inside and out, partial new roof, new central air, new flooring on first floor, double-pained energy efficient windows, high quality carbon filter and UV filter in the energy efficient furnace, new air exchanger, new sump pump, new energy efficient hot water heater, fully fenced in yard.

Key facts

• Short term rental
• Remodeled bathroom
• Long term rental

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• DORMER ADDITION
• DETACHED OUTBUILDING
• PROVEN RENTAL HISTORY
• SHORT TERM RENTAL
• LONG TERM RENTAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing (resale) condition
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Poured and stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Barn(s); Outbuilding; Rectangular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 103 x 73

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $376k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.0% in Skaneateles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#148 in NY, #2,279 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Skaneateles Central School District (town): math 78% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #65 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $275k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $375,871 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $413,910
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3859 State Street Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,134 (0%)	23mo	$274,900	$242	81
120 Fennell St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,133 (-0%)	8mo	$735,000	$649	62
977 Old Seneca Tpke	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,114 (-2%)	7mo	$380,000	$341	61
3957 State Street Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+6%)	22mo	$398,000	$332	54
60 Fennell St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,068 (-6%)	4mo	$390,000	$365	48
9 W Elizabeth St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+6%)	24mo	$525,000	$439	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-37,596
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,897
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13152

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,416/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,219

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Lakeview Cir Skaneateles, NY	2.0	1.0	818	$3,500	$4.28	21d	1	1.05mi
35 Lakeview Cir Skaneateles, NY	3.0	2.5	1338	$4,000	$2.99	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,416 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,080 · $423/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,663/yr (+$139/mo · 48.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,416
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,608
• − Management: −$3,608
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$1,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$355
• After-tax cash flow: $5,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Skaneateles Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626940
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,561
• Composite: 68.61/100
• National rank: #340
• State rank: #65 of 590 in NY

Livability — Skaneateles

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #2279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 424.2545
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+543.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $399,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-09 Rental Removed $2,700 CNYIS
• 2025-09-05 Listed for Rent $2,700 CNYIS
• 2024-08-22 Rental Removed $2,500 NYSAMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $2,500 NYSAMLS
• 2024-08-04 Price Changed $2,700 NYSAMLS
• 2024-07-27 Listed for Rent $2,900 NYSAMLS
• 2024-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $274,900 Public Records
• 2024-07-18 Sold (MLS) $274,900 CNYIS
• 2024-05-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-04-02 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-03-15 Price Changed $274,900 CNYIS
• 2024-02-23 Listed $299,000 CNYIS
• 2021-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-12 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CNYIS
• 2021-03-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-01-23 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2021-01-21 Listed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2021-01-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-10-06 Price Changed $184,000 CNYIS
• 2020-09-14 Price Changed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2020-07-27 Price Changed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2020-06-12 Listed $205,000 CNYIS
• 2015-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-21 Sold (MLS) $119,600 CNYIS
• 2015-11-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2015-10-06 Listed — CNYIS
• 2014-11-21 Listed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2001-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,416 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.