4192 Cider Trl · Valdosta, GA 31632

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2013 5,663 sqft lot $162/sqft · 9% above area Est $237k · at est. $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

POND access, a playground, and NO backyard neighbors!! Don't miss this custom built 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Nelson Hill Subdivision. Kitchen is equipped with custom cabinets, stainless appliances, tile backsplash, island, & pantry. Hardwood floors in living room and custom wood accent ceiling. Trey ceiling in master bedroom. Large master bath has double vanity, jetted tub, tile walk-in shower and his/her spacious walk-in closets. Screened porch. Fenced yard. Lowndes County Schools. Just minutes from MAFB, SGMC, VSU, and. I-75. Convenient to Valdosta and Hahira. Call for your appointment today!

Key facts

• Pantry
• Custom cabinets
• Pond access

Tags

• POND ACCESS
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• ISLAND
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-318/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $245k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,116 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,596
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: 3.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4152 Willow Round Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-1%)	3mo	$265,500	$177	90
4192 Bright Crk	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	4mo	$255,900	$166	88
4167 Silver Gln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	4mo	$245,000	$159	88
4176 Cider Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-5%)	4mo	$227,605	$159	87
4115 Cider Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+2%)	2mo	$265,000	$172	86
4160 Willow Round Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	5mo	$248,000	$161	86
4089 Silver Gln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+2%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	83
4097 Nelson Hill Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	2mo	$254,000	$165	80
4122 Nelson Hill Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	5mo	$252,000	$163	79
4154 Shadow Garden Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+4%)	3mo	$264,500	$168	78
4058 Cottage Hts	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-8%)	1mo	$230,000	$165	74
3988 Nelson Hill Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+8%)	3mo	$260,000	$160	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $131,716
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $389,141
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,312/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,015

Max offer price $240,325

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $43	+0% $-26	+5% $-96	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-105	+0% $-26	+5% $52	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $36	base $-26	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	21d	1	0.05mi
4171 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,650	$1.07	21d	1	0.09mi
4112 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,750	$1.14	44d	1	0.23mi
4162 Nelson Hill Pl Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	21d	1	0.32mi
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	21d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    status Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    POND access, a playground, and NO backyard neighbors!! Don't miss this custom built 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Nelson Hill Subdivision. Kitchen is equipped with custom cabinets, stainless appliances, tile backsplash, island, & pantry. Hardwood floors in living room and custom wood accent ceiling. Trey ceiling in master bedroom. Large master bath has double vanity, jetted tub, tile walk-in shower and his/her spacious walk-in closets. Screened porch. Fenced yard. Lowndes County Schools. Just minutes from MAFB, SGMC, VSU, and. I-75. Convenient to Valdosta and Hahira. Call for your appointment today!

19. 2026-05-09
    historical Active Under Contract 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    POND access, a playground, and NO backyard neighbors!! Don't miss this custom built 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Nelson Hill Subdivision. Kitchen is equipped with custom cabinets, stainless appliances, tile backsplash, island, & pantry. Hardwood floors in living room and custom wood accent ceiling. Trey ceiling in master bedroom. Large master bath has double vanity, jetted tub, tile walk-in shower and his/her spacious walk-in closets. Screened porch. Fenced yard. Lowndes County Schools. Just minutes from MAFB, SGMC, VSU, and. I-75. Convenient to Valdosta and Hahira. Call for your appointment today!

20. 2026-03-11
    listed $245,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    POND access, a playground, and NO backyard neighbors!! Don't miss this custom built 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Nelson Hill Subdivision. Kitchen is equipped with custom cabinets, stainless appliances, tile backsplash, island, & pantry. Hardwood floors in living room and custom wood accent ceiling. Trey ceiling in master bedroom. Large master bath has double vanity, jetted tub, tile walk-in shower and his/her spacious walk-in closets. Screened porch. Fenced yard. Lowndes County Schools. Just minutes from MAFB, SGMC, VSU, and. I-75. Convenient to Valdosta and Hahira. Call for your appointment today!

21. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $147,800
22. 2018-06-01
    soldstatus $147,800
23. 2018-04-03
    listed $142,900
24. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,312
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,095
• After-tax cash flow: $777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+75.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2026-05-09 Contingent — SGMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $245,000 SGMLS
• 2018-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $147,800 Public Records
• 2018-06-01 Sold (MLS) $147,800 SGMLS
• 2018-04-03 Listed $142,900 SGMLS
• 2013-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,312 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.