Sherman Plan · Corpus Christi, TX 78415

$297,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Watermill Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value, now selling at the Kings Landing masterplan in Corpus Christi, TX. Located right off of Highway 286, homeowners enjoy convenient access to restaurants, shops and entertainment. It's only a short 15-minute drive to all the local offerings in downtown Corpus Christi and 30 minutes to water-borne adventures on Mustang Island. Students will attend the well-renown London Independent School District.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 125 days

Tags

• NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SHORT DRIVE TO DOWNTOWN
• WELL-RENOWN SCHOOL DISTRICT

🏗️ New construction. The $297,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $289,847.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-183/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• London ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #13 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,516/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 1730% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,619 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,847
• List price: $297,999
• Delta: 2.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1430 Jack Chesney St	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+4%)	1mo	$444,990	$197	77
2821 Westeros St	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,210 (+2%)	1mo	$329,999	$149	75
1473 Irigoyen Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,155 (-0%)	2mo	$463,900	$215	71
2817 Westeros St	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,015 (-7%)	1mo	$317,999	$158	66
2833 Westeros St	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,015 (-7%)	2mo	$302,999	$150	66
1438 Jack Chesney St	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,385 (+10%)	1mo	$464,990	$195	66
2825 Westeros St	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,378 (+10%)	1mo	$298,999	$126	61
2705 Eltonne Gardens Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,855 (-14%)	1mo	$280,000	$151	57
2749 Eltonne Gardens Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,894 (-12%)	1mo	$285,100	$151	56
2741 Eltonne Gardens Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,893 (-12%)	2mo	$285,000	$151	56
2753 Excelsior Blvd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,863 (-14%)	1mo	$320,000	$172	55
1339 Grey Worm Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	1mo	$268,999	$145	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,612
• Equity at exit: $43,217

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-51,221
• Equity at exit: $25,061

Cash invested: $81,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78415

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $287,637

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,462
• Closing costs: $8,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2678 Lady Andrea Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$3,000	$1.69	13d	1	0.21mi
2826 Westeros St Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	3.0	2016	$2,550	$1.26	13d	1	0.42mi
2741 Eltonne Gardens Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1893	$2,500	$1.32	43d	1	0.44mi
2749 Eltonne Gardens Dr Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,295	$1.21	13d	1	0.46mi
1341 Trent Park Ln Corpus Christi, TX	5.0	2.0	2074	$2,750	$1.33	13d	1	0.46mi
1405 Irigoyen Ct Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$2,800	$1.36	13d	1	0.47mi
1258 Breebry Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,195	$1.48	13d	1	0.60mi
1269 Thames Chase Dr Corpus Christi, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,350	$1.48	13d	1	0.60mi
1205 Carnaby St Corpus Christi, TX	4.0	2.0	1689	$2,600	$1.54	43d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,999 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,999 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,999 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $297,999 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,999 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $297,999 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,999 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $297,999 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $302,999 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $302,999 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,999 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $302,999 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,999 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $302,999 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-02-13
    listed $302,999 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    The Watermill Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value, now selling at the Kings Landing masterplan in Corpus Christi, TX. Located right off of Highway 286, homeowners enjoy convenient access to restaurants, shops and entertainment. It's only a short 15-minute drive to all the local offerings in downtown Corpus Christi and 30 minutes to water-borne adventures on Mustang Island. Students will attend the well-renown London Independent School District.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,236
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,416
• − Management: −$2,416
• − Depreciation: −$8,432
• Taxable loss: −$5,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to address the exterior, roof, flooring, and interior conditions.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe damage and weathering
• Major roof — Missing shingles
• Major flooring — Worn and damaged
• Major interior walls/paint — Dirty and in need of cleaning
• Major bathrooms — In disrepair
• Major kitchen — In disrepair
• Major systems — No visible systems in good condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior siding repair — Aesthetic improvement and increased curb appeal
• Resale roof repair — Structural integrity and safety
• Resale flooring replacement — Improved appearance and functionality
• Resale interior wall and paint cleaning — Fresh appearance and improved aesthetics
• Resale bathroom and kitchen repairs — Functional and attractive spaces
• Resale system upgrades — Modern and efficient systems

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe damage and weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Dirty and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · In disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · In disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in good condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior siding repair — Aesthetic improvement and increased curb appeal ↑
• Resale roof repair — Structural integrity and safety ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — Improved appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale interior wall and paint cleaning — Fresh appearance and improved aesthetics ↑
• Resale bathroom and kitchen repairs — Functional and attractive spaces ↑
• Resale system upgrades — Modern and efficient systems ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: London ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827990
• Math proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $123,503
• Composite: 61.03/100
• National rank: #796
• State rank: #13 of 826 in TX

Livability — Corpus Christi

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2404

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Corpus Christi, TX
• County: Nueces County · 296,836 people
• City population: 296,836
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,080
• Household income: $54,990
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1730.0

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 41% White 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.20%
• Current HPI: 158.011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $302,999 Zillow