125 Mica Trl · San Marcos, TX 78656

$199,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2022 4,730 sqft lot Est $242k · 17% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Check out our "New Home Builder Like INCENTIVES" that can allow your buyer to lower the interest rates into the 5's!!!! Contact list agent to discuss. Amazing 2022 year built Lennar home that is in move in condition with an excellent lay out w/ 4 bedrooms and 2 Full Baths! As you enter the home, you are met with an entry way that leads you to front Secondary Bedrooms. Upgraded kitchen completed with Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, built in microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator opens wide open to the family room. Vinyl Laminate flooring through out and paint is in excellent condition!!!

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Upgraded kitchen
• 4,730 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKTOP
• VINYL LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Sunset Oaks; HOA fee $50 per month; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Two-car garage; Four parking spaces total; Two covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Wood fencing (fenced yard); City lot; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Free-standing electric range; Electric range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Main-level primary bedroom; Quartz counters; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and window coverings; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,442 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 Gabbro Gdns	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (0%)	5mo	$199,999	$124	87
221 Fairlawn Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-2%)	2mo	$309,900	$196	86
234 Fairlawn Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-2%)	1mo	$309,900	$196	86
125 Gabbro Gdns	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-10%)	1mo	$217,000	$150	78
465 Low Pasture Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-3%)	1mo	$297,065	$189	77
509 Aplite Pass	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-2%)	9mo	$337,900	$214	73
212 Amber Gln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-10%)	9mo	$221,500	$153	67
130 Soapstone Pass	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,450 (-10%)	5mo	$170,000	$117	66
130 Soapstone Pass	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,450 (-10%)	5mo	$179,900	$124	66
385 Soapstone Pass	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,837 (+14%)	1mo	$229,900	$125	65
937 Soapstone Pass	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,834 (+14%)	3mo	$264,990	$144	50
961 Soapstone Pass	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,834 (+14%)	4mo	$264,990	$144	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,993
• Equity at exit: $48,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-40,271
• Equity at exit: $50,242

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,793/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,002

Max offer price $176,442

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	43d	1	0.07mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	0.08mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	43d	1	0.08mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	17d	1	0.10mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	16d	1	0.12mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	43d	1	0.12mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	43d	1	0.19mi
253 Fairlawn Way Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,235	$1.16	24d	1	0.20mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,160	$1.25	1d	1	0.26mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,695	$1.19	11d	1	0.26mi
427 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	0.28mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	16d	1	0.29mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	22d	1	0.31mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,780	$1.10	1d	4	0.38mi
1413 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,500	$1.28	43d	1	0.42mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	0.43mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,850	$1.21	4d	1	0.78mi
342 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$1,975	$0.95	43d	1	0.83mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,845	$1.09	4d	1	0.86mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	3.0	2122	$1,795	$0.85	4d	1	0.88mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	2122	$1,795	$0.85	17d	1	0.88mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	43d	1	0.89mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,850	$1.09	12d	1	0.89mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	43d	1	0.89mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	17d	1	0.91mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	4d	1	0.91mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	17d	1	0.91mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	0.92mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	4d	1	0.94mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	17d	1	0.98mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,900	$1.07	4d	1	0.98mi
1259 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,695	$1.11	17d	1	1.00mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	4d	1	1.01mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.02mi
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	4d	1	1.03mi
365 Sonterra Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,345	$1.16	1d	1	1.09mi
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	1d	1	1.10mi
344 Escondido Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,150	$1.06	1d	1	1.15mi
341 Escondido Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,000	$0.99	1d	1	1.15mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,999	$1.25	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 612-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $199,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,793
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $199,990 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+76.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,793 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.