3878 Camellia Dr · Valdosta, GA 31605

$209,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,259 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1970 0.39 ac lot $93/sqft · at area comps Est $208k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Brick 4 bedroom 2 Bath home with an office! Come see this updated house just off Bemiss Rd in North Valdosta in Lowndes County School district!

Key facts

• Brick residence
• Modern updates
• Bonus room

Tags

• BRICK RESIDENCE
• MODERN UPDATES
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Tile and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dewar Elementary (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Pine Grove Middle School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #48 of 470 statewide, top 10%, 742 students, 50% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.22%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,539
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 1.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4003 Oak Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,256 (-0%)	20mo	$353,000	$156	63
3779 Old Vine Way	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,960 (-13%)	13mo	$250,000	$128	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-423
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $57,368
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,003/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $570	-5% $511	+0% $451	+5% $392	+10% $333
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $361	+0% $451	+5% $542	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $557	-0.5pp $505	base $451	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2047 Meadow Cove Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1892	$2,100	$1.11	45d	1	0.77mi
5070 Branch Point Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2190	$2,188	$1.00	22d	2	1.30mi
2 Lauries Pt Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	3188	$2,300	$0.72	45d	1	1.33mi
4901 Stonebrooke Dr Unit HAYDEN Valdosta, GA	5.0	3.0	2593	$2,561	$0.99	22d	1	1.34mi
3261 Jordan Way Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,100	$1.06	45d	1	1.37mi
3822 Edinburg Cir Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,100	$1.28	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $209,900 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $209,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 37 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    price $234,900 1931-char remark
20. 2026-04-23
    listed $239,900 Active 1931-char remark
21. 2024-06-03
    price $225,000
22. 2024-04-08
    price $235,000
23. 2024-03-19
    price $245,000
24. 2024-03-13
    price $265,000
25. 2021-08-19
    soldstatus $208,000
26. 2021-08-13
    soldstatus $208,000

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Beautiful Brick 4 bedroom 2 Bath home with an office! Come see this updated house just off Bemiss Rd in North Valdosta in Lowndes County School district!

27. 2021-06-29
    listed $208,000

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Beautiful Brick 4 bedroom 2 Bath home with an office! Come see this updated house just off Bemiss Rd in North Valdosta in Lowndes County School district!

28. 1996-05-03
    soldstatus $81,500
29. 1993-07-06
    soldstatus $72,900
30. 1970-04-10
    soldstatus $27,000
31. 1969-03-31
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,003 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,003 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,003
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $2,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$512
• After-tax cash flow: $4,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2523.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $209,900 SGMLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $229,900 SGMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $234,900 SGMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $239,900 SGMLS
• 2024-06-03 Price Changed $225,000 SGMLS
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $235,000 SGMLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $245,000 SGMLS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $265,000 SGMLS
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-13 Sold (MLS) $208,000 SGMLS
• 2021-06-29 Listed $208,000 SGMLS
• 1996-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 1993-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records
• 1970-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1969-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,003 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.