16622 N 1st Ave #88 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$18,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Built 1976 ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND: Beautifully maintained 2 bedroom 2 bath split floor plan. Spacious front room to enjoy, Kitchen is an eat in kitchen. Primary bedroom has garden tub shower combo. Hall bath has tub shower combo. Both bedrooms are good size. AC has been maintained and serviced at least annually. Roof just had maintenance end of last year. Enjoy the mornings on your front deck and a vinyl fenced yard as well. Storage shed with power and ac unit. Located on a cul-de-sac lot. From the carport you can see the golf course. Community is a 55 plus age restricted community. Featuring a beautiful heated pool, spa, large rec center, 9 hole golf, billiards and more. Lots of activities.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From 3rd Ave and Bell Road, turn into Central Park.
• Financial info: Land lease amount charged monthly
• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease payment); Monthly land lease payment; Association maintains grounds and streets; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Community amenities: pool, golf, community spa (heated), fitness center, community media room, coin-op laundry; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof with reflective coating; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Fencing (see remarks); Desert front landscaping; Desert back landscaping; Located on a cul-de-sac; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 73.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,835 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 73.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 241.17%
• DSCR: 11.73
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,408
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16622 N 1st Ave #88	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$18,500	$21	100
205 W Bell Rd #225	0.12mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$10,000	$11	90
16622 N 2nd Dr #182	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	7mo	$70,000	$73	76
17833 N 1st Pl	0.74mi	2/2.0	992 (+11%)	3mo	$280,000	$282	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.39×
• Total profit: $58,994
• Equity at exit: $2,758

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.18×
• Total profit: $120,083
• Equity at exit: $1,600

Cash invested: $5,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $1,041

Break-even live

Break-even rent $162

Max offer price $18,500

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,054	-5% $1,047	+0% $1,041	+5% $1,035	+10% $1,028
Rent	-10% $924	-5% $983	+0% $1,041	+5% $1,100	+10% $1,158
Rate	-1.0pp $1,050	-0.5pp $1,046	base $1,041	+0.5pp $1,036	+1.0pp $1,031

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,625
• Closing costs: $555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	0d	1	0.07mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	0d	11	0.13mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,640	$1.69	0d	8	0.17mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	25d	1	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 12 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	856	$1,399	$1.63	25d	1	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	25d	1	0.21mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	845	$1,499	$1.77	9d	1	0.24mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,427	$2.17	0d	35	0.27mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,564	$1.45	3d	32	0.27mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	0d	31	0.43mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	0d	23	0.67mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,538	$1.42	0d	50	0.76mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	0d	6	0.87mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	45d	1	0.91mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	18d	1	0.96mi
719 E Lola Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$2,900	$4.22	9d	1	1.01mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,824	$1.85	0d	22	1.03mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,547	$1.45	0d	9	1.08mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	19d	1	1.09mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	12d	1	1.09mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	0d	39	1.09mi
17241 N 16th Dr #1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	672	$1,450	$2.16	45d	1	1.15mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.16mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	0d	20	1.17mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	0d	10	1.24mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,371	$1.71	0d	34	1.34mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	21d	1	1.35mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	9d	1	1.35mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	0d	40	1.38mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,558	$1.63	0d	93	1.41mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	25d	1	1.49mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $18,500 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $18,500 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $18,500 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $18,500 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $18,500 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $18,500 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $18,500 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $18,500 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-05-15
   price $18,500
10. 2026-05-11
    price $25,000
11. 2026-04-18
    price $29,000
12. 2026-03-19
    price $34,000
13. 2026-03-06
    listed $38,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,036
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$92
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$538
• Taxable income: $12,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,113
• After-tax cash flow: $9,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-51.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $18,500 ARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $25,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $29,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $34,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $38,000 ARMLS