10649 Carloway Hills Dr · Balm, FL 33598

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2007 8,817 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is almost better than new! The home is in excellent condition- 3 beds 2 ba great room plan with formal dining area. The kitchen is bright and open and has a spacious eating area. New granite - new undermount sink and new hardware - their is a lovely ceramic back splash. Appliances are like new. There is new granite in both of the baths. The screened patio complete with a sun screen blind and ceramic tiling on the floor. Garage floor has just been painted ready for all your belongs. The yard is an oversized pie shaped lot -complete with sprinkler system. Located in Ayersworth. - a community pool and recreation area. Ez access to all major roads, shopping and restaurants About 1 hour to the airport - the beaches- or Orlando. . come and see you will not be sorry.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Split-bedroom layout
• Newer roof

Tags

• UPDATED RESIDENCE
• NEWER ROOF
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed
• Financial info: CDD applies; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by McNeil Mgt/ Jeff Shreaves; Annual HOA fee of $100 (approximately $8.33/month); HOA covers pool, management and recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, park, playground, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, recreation facilities, sidewalks, deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces northwest
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Covered, screened rear porch; Patio/porch features; Outdoor lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Vinyl fencing; Trees and landscaped yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living/Dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floorplan; Stone counters; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage; Electric water heater; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Jule F Sumner High School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 3,827 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $275k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,371 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-50,776
• Equity at exit: $49,080

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-73,150
• Equity at exit: $37,885

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,214/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,531

Max offer price $255,895

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-30	+0% $-108	+5% $-186	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-203	+0% $-108	+5% $-14	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-38	base $-108	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10438 Carloway Hills Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,500	$1.34	26d	1	0.43mi
14471 Stagedoor Johnny Pl Ruskin, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,344	$2.06	0d	20	0.46mi
14452 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,250	$1.32	14d	1	0.50mi
14409 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,800	$1.08	26d	1	0.53mi
14525 Scottburgh Glen Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,300	$1.94	23d	1	0.56mi
14442 Editors Note St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,100	$1.23	6d	1	0.57mi
14339 Easy Goer St Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.5	1701	$2,350	$1.38	23d	1	0.58mi
10124 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,150	$1.60	1d	1	0.74mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,250	$1.44	6d	1	0.78mi
14906 Imperial Purple Ln Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,250	$1.27	19d	1	0.78mi
10313 Celtic Ash Dr Ruskin, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,005	$1.44	18d	1	0.90mi
14010 Hollow Leaf Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,195	$1.31	12d	1	1.04mi
10405 Apollo Manor Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$3,163	$2.83	1d	30	1.04mi
14249 War Admiral Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1747	$2,047	$1.17	6d	1	1.04mi
14243 Riva Ridge Pl Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1747	$2,047	$1.17	23d	1	1.05mi
10108 Point Given Ct Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.5	1747	$2,047	$1.17	26d	1	1.15mi
10454 Shady Preserve Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	3.0	1642	$2,000	$1.22	26d	1	1.16mi
10324 Geese Trail Cir Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	1.23mi
15416 Gopher Trop Pl Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$2,300	$1.30	26d	1	1.28mi
15628 Aurora Lake Cir Wimauma, FL	2.0	2.0	1747	$2,200	$1.26	26d	1	1.31mi
9620 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,061	$1.33	1d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,214 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,214 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,214
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+206.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $178,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-03 Listed $184,867 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-13 Sold (MLS) $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-23 Price Changed $114,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-27 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-22 Listed $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-21 Listed $89,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,214 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.