141 N Fillmore Ave N #10 · Sterling, VA 20164

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Condo public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1965 $370/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Top-floor condo in Pembrooke of Loudoun with impressive updates throughout! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is move-in ready and offers quality finishes throughout. The kitchen was expanded and fully renovated in 2018, featuring white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with bar seating — a wonderful space for cooking and entertaining. The open floor plan flows beautifully with luxury vinyl plank flooring, and the living room's sliding glass door opens to a Juliet balcony, bringing in great natural light. The primary bedroom offers a generous walk-in closet, and the entire unit has just been freshly painted, making it truly turnkey. Bonus storage wit

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Top-floor condo
• Expanded kitchen

Tags

• TOP-FLOOR CONDO
• EXPANDED KITCHEN
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PENINSULA WITH BAR SEATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Sterling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#57 in VA, #1,551 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sully Elementary (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #953 of 1,108 statewide, top 86%, 462 students, 93% FRL); Sterling Middle (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #320 of 342 statewide, top 95%, 1,037 students, 83% FRL); Park View High (math 41% / reading 73%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 1,455 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 12% district-wide (76 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 72% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Loudoun County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,293 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,140
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $11,991
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20164

• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,975/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $225,293

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-69	+0% $-140	+5% $-211	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-230	+0% $-140	+5% $-49	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-76	base $-140	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 N Fillmore Ave #1 Sterling, VA	2.0	1.0	936	$2,000	$2.14	19d	1	0.02mi
125 N Garfield Rd Sterling, VA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	0d	1	0.09mi
131 N Garfield Rd Sterling, VA	1.0	1.0	1356	$1,295	$0.96	45d	1	0.12mi
131 N Garfield Rd Unit 1 Sterling, VA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	45d	1	0.12mi
22355 Providence Village Dr Sterling, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,395	$3.23	7d	22	0.14mi
332 Lancaster Sq Sterling, VA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	45d	1	0.22mi
103 Saint Charles Sq Sterling, VA	2.0	1.0	1078	$2,500	$2.32	0d	1	0.40mi
1212 Chase Heritage Cir Sterling, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,933	$2.93	0d	11	1.06mi
1179 Dublin Pl Herndon, VA	3.0	2.5	1240	$2,700	$2.18	22d	1	1.17mi
1724 Fantasia Cir Herndon, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,300	$2.36	45d	1	1.18mi
1308 Wexford Ct Herndon, VA	3.0	2.5	1240	$2,650	$2.14	45d	1	1.22mi
1030 Margate Ct Sterling, VA	2.0	1.5	1162	$2,100	$1.81	0d	1	1.26mi
1029 Margate Ct Sterling, VA	1.0	1.5	1162	$1,200	$1.03	17d	1	1.27mi
1017 Brixton Ct Unit 1017 Sterling, VA	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	20d	1	1.31mi
46858 Clarion Ter Sterling, VA	2.0	2.5	1260	$2,450	$1.94	45d	1	1.33mi
46051 Marble Ter Sterling, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,000	$2.50	4d	1	1.38mi
22987 Fontwell Sq Sterling, VA	1.0	1.0	1460	$1,200	$0.82	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-26
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2000-05-26
   soldstatus $599,000
5. 2000-05-26
   soldstatus $59,900
6. 2000-05-25
   soldstatus $59,900
7. 2000-04-27
   historical
8. 2000-04-14
   listed $61,900
9. 1987-05-11
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,975 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,975
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,404
• After-tax cash flow: $-275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Sterling

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #1551

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sterling, VA
• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• City population: 92,473
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 43,436
• Household income: $135,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 579.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 30% Two or more races 20% Asian 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Indo-European 8% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.79%
• Current HPI: 369.4596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.22%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+323.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2000-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $599,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-25 Sold (MLS) $59,900 MRIS
• 2000-04-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-04-14 Listed $61,900 MRIS
• 1987-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,975 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.