653 Smith Acres Dr · Fate, TX 75189

$249,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2004 1.24 ac lot $127/sqft · 29% below area Est $350k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Generous lot
• Large kitchen

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• RECENTLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• MATURE TREES
• LONG DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic / septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004
• Construction: 1,976 square feet living area
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot includes other/unspecified features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10x10, 10x11, 10x12); Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13x16)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Fate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#246 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harry Herndon El (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 536 students, 49% FRL); Bobby Summers Middle (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,020 students, 42% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,000
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -28.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
734 Northfork Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-15%)	2mo	$375,000	$223	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-15,617
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,354
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1301
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $653	-5% $582	+0% $511	+5% $441	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $409	+0% $511	+5% $614	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $575	base $511	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 Blakelys Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2609	$2,800	$1.07	45d	1	0.33mi
527 Embargo Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,495	$1.36	13d	1	0.44mi
129 Griffin Ave Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,375	$1.17	0d	1	0.75mi
426 George Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2064	$2,395	$1.16	25d	1	0.77mi
126 Wilmington Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1799	$2,200	$1.22	25d	1	0.78mi
508 Hunt Farms Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2555	$2,650	$1.04	4d	1	0.81mi
562 Jamestown Ln Fate, TX	4.0	2.0	2071	$2,900	$1.40	0d	1	0.94mi
107 Dustin Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,600	$1.57	23d	1	1.01mi
496 Oak Hills Ln Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,175	$1.28	25d	1	1.01mi
312 Eden Dr Fate, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,699	$1.11	0d	1	1.02mi
307 Eden Dr Fate, TX	4.0	2.5	2129	$2,395	$1.12	0d	1	1.02mi
217 Baldwin Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,195	$1.35	20d	1	1.05mi
545 Declaration Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,490	$1.22	45d	1	1.06mi
436 Baltimore Ave Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,250	$1.28	45d	1	1.06mi
495 Chandler Ct Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,200	$1.31	25d	1	1.11mi
206 Pleasant Hill Ln Fate, TX	4.0	3.0	2596	$2,645	$1.02	14d	1	1.12mi
206 Pleasant Hill Ln Fate, TX	4.0	3.0	2596	$2,645	$1.02	8d	1	1.12mi
264 Callaghan Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,921	$1.27	0d	1	1.20mi
306 Packer Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2262	$1,995	$0.88	25d	1	1.26mi
1029 N Churchill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,250	$1.22	0d	1	1.31mi
319 Colony Way Fate, TX	5.0	3.0	2608	$3,000	$1.15	45d	1	1.31mi
454 Stuart Ln Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,095	$1.39	0d	1	1.39mi
537 Robinson Way Fate, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,150	$1.17	6d	1	1.42mi
341 Wentworth Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,340	$1.27	25d	1	1.47mi
547 Delaware Rd Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,150	$1.24	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 735-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   price $249,999 735-char remark
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $259,999 Active 735-char remark
4. 2018-08-08
   soldstatus Sold 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

5. 2018-07-15
   historical Active Contingent 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

6. 2018-06-28
   status Active 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

7. 2018-06-19
   status Pending 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

8. 2018-06-12
   historical Active Contingent 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

9. 2018-05-31
   listed $90,000 Active 487-char remark

   Show marketing remark (487 chars)

   Four bedroom two located on approx an acre, Open living area, large master bedroom with large garden tub and more. Buyer to verify all info on home. Pre-approval letter or proof of funds and earnest money Square footage information is from the FHA Appraisal and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. IE INSURED ESCROW 203K ELIGIBLE YES HUD Case # 511-053767 HUD properties sold As-Is without any guarantee or warranty by seller. Equal Housing Opportunity SUBMIT ALL BIDS ON HUDHOMESTORE

10. 2018-05-10
    soldstatus
11. 2018-05-08
    historical
12. 2017-09-07
    listed $113,787 Active
13. 2010-08-11
    soldstatus
14. 2010-07-06
    historical
15. 2010-04-20
    listed $45,000
16. 2005-01-24
    soldstatus
17. 2005-01-24
    soldstatus
18. 1997-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,097/yr (+$258/mo · 209.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $2,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$516
• After-tax cash flow: $5,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fate

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #5864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $259,999 HARMLS
• 2018-08-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-07-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-06-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2018-06-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-06-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-05-31 Listed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2018-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-09-07 Listed $113,787 NTREIS
• 2010-08-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-07-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-04-20 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2005-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,478 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.