14775 Cranberry Ct · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$564,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2013 9,147 sqft lot $371/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Buyers will love this--HOA dues through the rest of 2026 and the lakes special assessment are being covered by the sellers! This 4 bedroom, 3 bath Lakefront home offers one of the most desirable settings in gated Reflection Lakes of Naples, with an extra wide cul-de-sac lot, added privacy, and convenient access to both the main gate and nearby shortcut entrance. Freshly painted and well cared for, the home features a functional split bedroom layout designed for privacy, comfort, and flexibility. From the living room and lanai, the lake view provides a peaceful backdrop, while the spacious lot offers added open space around the front and rear of the home for gardening, play, or outdoor enjo

Key facts

• Large island
• Granite countertops
• Lakefront home

Tags

• LAKEFRONT HOME
• EXTRA WIDE CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE GUEST BEDROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Other

• Possession: Possession at closing
• Property details: Located in Reflection Lakes of Naples development; Lot is cul-de-sac, irregular shape and oversize; Approximately 0.21 acres; Has lake waterfront view; View of lake and landscaped area; Lot total area 2,630 (unit as provided); Restrictions: Architectural, Deeded, No Commercial, No RV; Use main entrance where the Naples Reserve and Reflection Lakes signage is found off US-41 for directions
• Multi-unit information: Single unit/home in complex of 536 units; One floor

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (gated community); Master HOA fee $371 monthly; Total annual recurring fees $4,452; Total one-time fees $1,150; On-site management; Master association covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, recreation facilities, reserves, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, billiards, bocce court, hobby room, library, sidewalks, streetlights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Contemporary design; Rear exposure facing east
• Construction: Built in 2013; Concrete block construction; Tile roof; Stone and stucco exterior; Single-story
• Exterior features: Pond on property; Automatic sprinkler system (assessment paid, reclaimed); Landscaped views

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Pantry; Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground floor; First-floor bedroom; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans (3)
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Island kitchen; Dining in living area; Family room; Screened lanai/porch; Security system; Smoke detectors; Generator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $564k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $564k).
• Recommended offer: $547k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 584 students, 73% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,217/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $158k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($547k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $547,080 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.21%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $15,591
• Equity at exit: $123,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $141,538
• Equity at exit: $118,716

Cash invested: $157,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,958
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,204/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$371
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,305
• Net cashflow: $1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,849

Max offer price $564,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,000
• Closing costs: $16,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14796 Canton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$7,000	$4.17	23d	1	0.06mi
14678 Fern Lake Ct Unit 1049694P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2142	$6,065	$2.83	13d	1	0.18mi
14265 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2362	$7,000	$2.96	23d	1	0.29mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,700	$1.73	21d	1	0.29mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,800	$1.79	23d	1	0.29mi
9259 Museo Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,150	$1.98	23d	1	0.38mi
9267 Museo Cir Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$5,200	$2.48	23d	1	0.40mi
9255 Museo #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$9,000	$4.29	23d	1	0.48mi
9239 Tesoro Ln Unit 3-203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$8,000	$3.48	23d	1	0.51mi
9243 Tesoro Ln Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$6,500	$3.10	13d	1	0.55mi
9242 Tesoro Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$3,000	$1.34	23d	1	0.57mi
2850 Aviamar Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	23d	1	0.63mi
9209 Museo Cir Unit 102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$7,200	$2.88	13d	1	0.63mi
9224 Campanile Cir Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2512	$6,495	$2.59	13d	1	0.66mi
9205 Museo Cir Unit 201 Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	3000	$10,000	$3.33	13d	1	0.67mi
14837 Windward Ln Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$4,995	$2.44	23d	1	0.67mi
3031 Marengo Ct Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	13d	1	0.69mi
14849 Windward Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2344	$11,000	$4.69	23d	1	0.70mi
2710 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$9,000	$3.60	23d	1	0.78mi
3149 Aviamar Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$7,500	$3.97	13d	1	0.78mi
2713 Callista Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$6,999	$3.13	23d	1	0.80mi
9630 Campanile Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2283	$15,000	$6.57	23d	1	0.83mi
3290 Dorado Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$5,530	$2.13	13d	1	0.83mi
14670 Catamaran Pl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1816	$7,000	$3.85	23d	1	0.83mi
3290 Dorado Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$10,000	$3.85	23d	1	0.84mi
14662 Catamaran Pl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$7,000	$3.44	23d	1	0.85mi
2717 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$8,500	$3.40	23d	1	0.86mi
1937 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$3,830	$1.73	21d	1	0.89mi
2244 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,300	$1.99	13d	1	0.90mi
9571 Mussorie Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2117	$12,500	$5.90	23d	1	0.92mi
14546 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$5,500	$2.69	23d	1	0.92mi
1973 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2894	$9,800	$3.39	23d	1	0.95mi
9104 Cherry Oaks Trl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,000	$2.67	23d	1	0.96mi
14162 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$3,800	$2.26	23d	1	0.97mi
14653 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2550	$7,500	$2.94	23d	1	0.97mi
14103 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,650	$1.97	23d	1	0.97mi
14586 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2438	$9,500	$3.90	23d	1	0.99mi
9142 Cherry Oaks Ln #201 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	3000	$2,995	$1.00	13d	1	1.01mi
9142 Cherry Oaks Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2408	$3,000	$1.25	13d	1	1.01mi
14606 Tropical Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2046	$9,500	$4.64	23d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $371 · $4,452/yr
• Likely covers: security
• ⚠ Special-assessment mentions:

  Buyers will love this--HOA dues through the rest of 2026 and the lakes special assessment are being covered by the sellers! This 4 bedroom, 3 bath Lakefront home offers one of the most desirable settings in…

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $564,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $564,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $564,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $564,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $564,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $564,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $564,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $564,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $564,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $564,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $564,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $564,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $564,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $564,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    price $564,000
16. 2026-04-26
    listed $569,000 Active
17. 2013-05-17
    soldstatus $587,326

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,681 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,478/yr (+$123/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,593
• − Property taxes: −$3,204
• − Insurance: −$2,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,968
• − Management: −$5,968
• − HOA: −$4,452
• − Depreciation: −$16,407
• Taxable income: $4,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $11,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $564,000 BEARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $569,000 BEARMLS
• 2013-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $587,326 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2018): $3,204 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.