M668A Plan · Cleburne, TX 76033

$118,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Villas de Mariposas, where hard work turns into a home you can feel proud of-and a place where value grows with you. If your family grinds every day and you're ready for a fresh start in a nice, new home, this brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath offers 1,632 sq ft of clean, comfortable space built for real life. Step into a welcoming foyer, an extra-large living room for movie nights and guests, and an open kitchen/dining area that keeps everyone connected. The primary suite is your reward at the end of the day with a private en suite and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms give you flexibility for kids, guests, an office, or family, plus a large laundry/utility room with a second entry/exit. Live easier with on-site management, professional maintenance, lawn care, and snow removal included. Enjoy resort-style amenities like a pool, 24-hour fitness center, coffee lounge, and clubhouse for celebrations and everyday wins. Villas de Mariposas-a smart move with more space, more comfort, and a community that supports your next chapter. Tour today!

Key facts

• Private en suite
• Walk-in closet
• Welcoming foyer

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• EXTRA-LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN DINING AREA
• PRIVATE EN SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $822 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.25%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $16,417
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $46,309
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,319 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76033

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 660
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $118,995

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,749
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Park Blvd Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1456	$1,795	$1.23	1d	22	0.22mi
1410 Hyde Park Blvd Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,111	$1.38	1d	1	0.60mi
1404 Chaucer Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,895	$1.61	1d	1	0.76mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.81mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,400	$1.28	22d	1	0.81mi
1203 Stonelake Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,000	$1.29	4d	1	0.83mi
1211 Larkspur Ln Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,250	$1.25	1d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,995 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,995 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,995 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,995 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,995 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,995 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,995 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,995 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $118,995 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,995 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,995 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,995 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,995 Active 167 DOM
14. 2025-12-15
    listed $118,995 Active 1065-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1065 chars)

    Welcome to Villas de Mariposas, where hard work turns into a home you can feel proud of-and a place where value grows with you. If your family grinds every day and you're ready for a fresh start in a nice, new home, this brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bath offers 1,632 sq ft of clean, comfortable space built for real life. Step into a welcoming foyer, an extra-large living room for movie nights and guests, and an open kitchen/dining area that keeps everyone connected. The primary suite is your reward at the end of the day with a private en suite and walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms give you flexibility for kids, guests, an office, or family, plus a large laundry/utility room with a second entry/exit. Live easier with on-site management, professional maintenance, lawn care, and snow removal included. Enjoy resort-style amenities like a pool, 24-hour fitness center, coffee lounge, and clubhouse for celebrations and everyday wins. Villas de Mariposas-a smart move with more space, more comfort, and a community that supports your next chapter. Tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $6,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $6,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and living spaces. It has potential for further value increases through exterior improvements and kitchen appliance upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and appeal of the home to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can enhance the overall aesthetic and appeal of the home to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,538
• Household income: $76,292
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 927.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.75%
• Current HPI: 246.0029
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $118,995 Zillow