2391 Zarzamora · Lake Don Pedro, CA 95329

$320,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1985 2.10 ac lot Est $306k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for usable land? Welcome to 2391 Zarzamora which offers a 1,710 square foot manufactured home on permanent foundation with 2.1 Acres. This home offers two large bedrooms and two bathrooms with a generous living area. The open floor plan is designed to accommodate all of your family and guests. The cozy kitchen has been tastefully updated. The living area offers large windows that show off the amazing views and sunsets. Speaking of views, the deck is perfect for those stunning views while relaxing in your own personal oasis. The land offers room for your animals, FFA projects, or growing your own food with multiple water spigot locations. This property is located just minutes to Lake

Key facts

• Large windows
• Open floor plan
• Community pool

Tags

• USABLE LAND
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (Lake Don Pedro) with annual fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Built in 1985
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Community pool; Lot includes level and sloped down areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Don Pedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#867 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,090
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14729 Lucero	0.52mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,716 (+0%)	22mo	$307,500	$179	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,277
• Equity at exit: $119,005

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $67,767
• Equity at exit: $165,992

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95329

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,286/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $298,223

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14575 Avenida Central La Grange, CA	3.0	2.0	1982	$2,500	$1.26	13d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $320,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $320,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $320,000 Active
18. 2023-02-06
    soldstatus $290,000
19. 2014-02-24
    soldstatus $155,000
20. 2012-09-04
    soldstatus $80,000
21. 2010-12-22
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,286 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,286 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$3,286
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,698
• After-tax cash flow: $219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Don Pedro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #867
• US rank: #23601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,339

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 163.9206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+255.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $320,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,286 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.