2317 Pebble Beach Blvd · University, FL 32826

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Condition / age +0.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Settled in Orlando, Florida, enjoy the best in southern hospitality and 55+ active living with us at Fairways. This age-restricted community has countless amenities to enhance your comfort and convenience. Come explore our lovely clubhouse, get involved in our fun events and experience the fantastic lifestyle we offer! The Fairways is designed to meet your unique style of living and needs, making it the ideal place to call home. While on the property, partake in numerous daily social events and activities or simply relax with a round of golf or a trip to the pool. While the community features are sure to please, we know you will treasure the time spent in your beautiful home. Your custom-b

Key facts

• Custom-built home
• Built 2026
• Listed 62 days

Tags

• CUSTOM-BUILT HOME
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2317 Pebble Beach Blvd, Orlando FL 32826; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $189,995

Exterior

• Home design: Spec home; Single-family property (one story implied by inventory type)
• Construction: New construction (listed 2026)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,568

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.9% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,766
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,497
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32826

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2645 Talladega Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$2,281	$1.85	15d	1	0.55mi
1911 Colonial Woods Blvd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,100	$1.42	24d	1	0.55mi
14050 Ithaca Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,115	$1.72	8d	1	0.65mi
1705 Circe Lake Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,100	$1.73	24d	1	0.71mi
14122 Newcomb Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,945	$1.62	14d	1	0.74mi
2219 Justin Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	18d	1	0.79mi
13087 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1148	$2,350	$2.05	24d	1	0.81mi
12912 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1392	$2,399	$1.72	4d	1	0.84mi
12949 Odyssey Lake Way Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,100	$1.61	8d	1	0.86mi
14630 Lady Victoria Blvd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,695	$1.36	2d	1	0.87mi
13645 E Colonial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,235	$2.61	3d	10	0.93mi
3229 New Mexico Ct Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,370	$1.82	24d	1	1.06mi
2612 Bonneville Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	1.14mi
525 Loyola Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1400	$2,973	$2.12	2d	43	1.16mi
2810 Geoffrey Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	18d	1	1.35mi
15634 Perdido Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,450	$1.45	18d	1	1.48mi
12000 Bryonia Rd Alafaya, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$2,570	$2.62	2d	14	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$253
• After-tax cash flow: $2,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 10/100 None rehab

The property is under construction and not yet ready for occupancy. No repairs or maintenance are needed as it is a new build.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — University

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #603

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 41,570
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,006
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1705.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.30%
• Current HPI: 318.563
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B