4191 Waldron Trl · Forney, TX 75126

$338,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $347k · at est. $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely single story home. Gas oven, fireplace, 10' ceilings, ceiling fans in all rooms, garage door opener & full gutters included. Separate tub and shower and dual sinks in primary bathroom.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Gas oven
• 10 ceilings

Tags

• GAS OVEN
• FIREPLACE
• 10 CEILINGS
• CEILING FANS
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is not attached (detached single-family); Parcel/lot identifiers on file
• Financial info: No second mortgage reported; Listing sold by builder (special listing condition: Builder)
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Association fees provide full use of facilities; HOA fee $363, paid semi-annually; HOA managed by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20' x 20')
• Security: Burglar alarm; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; MUD water; MUD sewer; Property in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, year built 2026)
• Construction: New construction - incomplete (2026)
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Lakewood Trails; Directions: Take Interstate 20 East to exit FM741 in Forney, turn left onto Lakemont Dr and left on Plateau Dr to 4110 Plateau Dr.

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with breakfast bar, built-in cabinets, butler's pantry, island, and eat-in area; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet (1st level); Three additional bedrooms (1st level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas starter fireplace (heating feature noted)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Gas starter fireplace; One living area; One dining area; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (laundry/utility not specifically listed but appliances and utility connections indicated)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henderson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 737 students, 50% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $296,171 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,891
• List price: $338,490
• Delta: -2.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-48,681
• Equity at exit: $50,470

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-47,070
• Equity at exit: $29,266

Cash invested: $94,777 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,775
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,305/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,746

Max offer price $338,490

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $266	+0% $171	+5% $75	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $54	+0% $171	+5% $288	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $257	base $171	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,622
• Closing costs: $10,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	45d	1	0.06mi
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	46d	1	0.09mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	45d	1	0.11mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	45d	1	0.12mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.17mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	45d	1	0.18mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.41mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.57mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	14d	1	0.64mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	45d	1	0.67mi
2320 Willard Way Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2408	$3,950	$1.64	45d	1	0.69mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	24d	1	0.71mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	9d	1	0.76mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	46d	1	0.95mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	45d	1	1.07mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	26d	1	1.14mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	14d	1	1.14mi
3204 Stanley St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,400	$0.99	26d	1	1.16mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	45d	1	1.16mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	5d	1	1.20mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	0d	1	1.22mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.27mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.29mi
3328 Perman Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.30mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.32mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	24d	1	1.39mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Heartland, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,300	$1.01	0d	1	1.40mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,295	$1.00	45d	1	1.40mi
731 Lauren Grove Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 197-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   price $338,490 197-char remark
3. 2026-05-11
   price $341,490 197-char remark
4. 2026-05-05
   listed $339,490 Active 197-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,194 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,890/yr (+$324/mo · 168.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,961
• − Property taxes: −$2,305
• − Insurance: −$1,692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,843
• − Management: −$2,843
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$9,847
• Taxable loss: −$3,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $2,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $338,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $341,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $339,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,305 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.