557 NE 8th Ave · Crystal River, FL 34428

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1966 10,227 sqft lot Est $150k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath on a large lot. Needs a little elbow grease. .. .great potential. Being sold As-Is. Call today for an appt.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Large corner lot
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• RECENT INTERIOR UPDATES
• EASY ACCESS TO SPRINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include golf, park, airport/runway access, street lights, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Built with one story
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Corner, level lot; Paved city street frontage; Public-maintained road; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible entrance; Electric cooktop; Electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $130k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.27%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,368
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 NE 5th Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-0%)	4mo	$150,000	$127	75
738 NE 12th Ter	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+2%)	6mo	$115,000	$95	64
811 NE 5th Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-5%)	8mo	$75,000	$67	62
657 NE 11th St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+12%)	7mo	$155,000	$117	49
403 NE 2nd St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+10%)	10mo	$190,000	$146	49
159 NE 10th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+4%)	11mo	$205,000	$166	46
1226 NE 7 Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,222 (+3%)	21mo	$70,000	$57	43
406 NE 9th St	0.49mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,318 (+11%)	6mo	$199,000	$151	42
661 NE 12th Ter	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-11%)	22mo	$144,000	$136	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,778
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $33,823
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $407	+0% $370	+5% $334	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $289	+0% $370	+5% $452	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $403	base $370	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3371 N Bay Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	22d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $130,000
17. 2026-01-23
    listed $149,500 Active
18. 2008-03-07
    soldstatus $42,000 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Solid home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath on a large lot. Needs a little elbow grease. .. .great potential. Being sold As-Is. Call today for an appt.

19. 2008-02-02
    listed $49,590 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Solid home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath on a large lot. Needs a little elbow grease. .. .great potential. Being sold As-Is. Call today for an appt.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $3,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal River, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+162.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $130,000 RACC
• 2026-01-23 Listed $149,500 RACC
• 2008-03-07 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-02 Listed $49,590 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · -55.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.