138 Richland Ave · Watertown, TN 37184

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1910 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover a great opportunity in the heart of Watertown! This older home at 138 Richland Ave is perfect for investors, rehabbers, or anyone looking to bring new life to a property with tons of potential. This home is ready for updates, repairs, and personalization. With the right vision, it can be transformed into a beautiful residence, rental property, or flip.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Parking: No designated covered parking; No recorded total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.2 acre (50 x 160); Water available

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Oven; Laminate flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.9% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watertown Elementary (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #119 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 577 students, 0% FRL); Watertown High School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #156 of 332 statewide, top 49%, 680 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.63%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,800
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
239 Commerce Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	864 (+3%)	11mo	$210,000	$243	74
111 Commerce Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	924 (+10%)	7mo	$111,000	$120	65
524 E College St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	794 (-6%)	20mo	$175,000	$220	41
116 Cornwell Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	964 (+15%)	17mo	$110,000	$114	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $58,067
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $162,429
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37184

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $205	+0% $181	+5% $157	+10% $133
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $124	+0% $181	+5% $238	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $203	base $181	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $85,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $85,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 363-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $85,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $1,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County
• NCES district ID: 4704550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,429
• Composite: 38.33/100
• National rank: #4225
• State rank: #10 of 139 in TN

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, TN
• Population (ZIP): 7,224

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 160,409 people
• By 2030: 176,099 · +9.8%
• By 2040: 206,769 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 235,383 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 302,144 · +88.4%
• By 2100: 343,710 · +114.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Philippines
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 29.4% · R 69.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.6pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+41.6 2008: R+36.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.35%
• Current HPI: 425.096
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Coming Soon $85,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.