9766 Black Gum St · Willis, TX 77318

$167,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 2,100 sqft lot $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Dream home is Loaded with Upgrades, from Gold tone hardware on the black cabinets, Granite throughout the house, ceiling fans, High-end appliances and so much more. .. . The Neighborhood is walnut cove and they have lots of amenities: pool, parks, boat Ramp, Fishing Pier, volleyball court, Pickleball ct and even a Basketball court. This home is a must see, Great for investors or even for the first time home buyer. Call today as this will go fast

Key facts

• Black cabinets
• High-end appliances
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• GOLD TONE HARDWARE
• BLACK CABINETS
• GRANITE THROUGHOUT
• CEILING FANS
• HIGH-END APPLIANCES
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Walnut Cove association; Quarterly association fee of $60; Community amenities: clubhouse, park, playground, basketball court, pickleball, boat dock, boat ramp, pool

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; One-story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2025; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 14); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Crown molding; High ceilings; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

🏗️ New construction. The $167,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $153,236.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,990 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,236
• List price: $167,000
• Delta: 8.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11519 Persimmon St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,196 (0%)	3mo	$65,000	$54	86
11670 Vistawood St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	9mo	$85,000	$70	77
9792 Black Gum	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,355 (+13%)	7mo	$150,000	$111	67
9563 Darkwood St	0.14mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,072 (-10%)	3mo	$159,000	$148	66
11859 Vanwood St	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,232 (+3%)	8mo	$89,000	$72	66
8685 Sassafras St	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,355 (+13%)	5mo	$130,000	$96	64
10176 Barberry St	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,355 (+13%)	3mo	$127,500	$94	64
8687 Sassafras St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,355 (+13%)	8mo	$130,000	$96	62
10174 Barberry St	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,355 (+13%)	7mo	$150,000	$111	61
12912 Lake Conroe Bay Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+6%)	1mo	$200,000	$157	61
10196 Barberry St	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,355 (+13%)	6mo	$150,000	$111	59
13002 Sorrento Bay Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,370 (+14%)	8mo	$195,000	$142	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,936
• Equity at exit: $22,848

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,186
• Equity at exit: $13,249

Cash invested: $42,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$804
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,023/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $153,236

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $244	+0% $201	+5% $157	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $134	+0% $201	+5% $268	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $240	base $201	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,309
• Closing costs: $4,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.06mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	0.06mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.07mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.25mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	45d	1	0.26mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	45d	1	0.27mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	6d	1	0.75mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	45d	1	0.78mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	0d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $167,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $167,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $167,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $167,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $167,000 Active 454-char remark
13. 2025-12-02
    soldstatus
14. 2025-12-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,023 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,584
• − Property taxes: −$3,023
• − Insurance: −$766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$4,458
• Taxable income: $30
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+30.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,023 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.