8878 Little Morongo Rd · Morongo Valley, CA 92256

$229,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1972 0.85 ac lot $144/sqft · 39% below area Est $373k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great fixer-upper opportunity for investors. House is partially burned, Separate 2 car garages are untouched and have new roofs. One separate studio is untouched and next to it has a green house. The added living room is partially damaged. Irrigation pluming is intact but the house needs new plumbing and electrical. Stamped concrete and concrete driveway all around. Concrete wall surrounds the property.

Key facts

• Stamped concrete
• New roofs
• Irrigation plumbing

Tags

• SEPARATE 2 CAR GARAGES
• NEW ROOFS
• SEPARATE STUDIO
• GREEN HOUSE
• IRRIGATION PLUMBING
• STAMPED CONCRETE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Morongo Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#505 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $229k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,177 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,785
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -38.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8887 Little Morongo Rd	0.09mi	2/2.5 (+1)	1,525 (-4%)	7mo	$350,000	$230	72
8574 Rose Eden Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,447 (-9%)	14mo	$440,000	$304	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $50,065
• Equity at exit: $138,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $157,124
• Equity at exit: $246,046

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92256

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,404/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,894

Max offer price $199,317

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 322 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 318 DOM
15. 2025-07-17
    listed $229,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Great fixer-upper opportunity for investors. House is partially burned, Separate 2 car garages are untouched and have new roofs. One separate studio is untouched and next to it has a green house. The added living room is partially damaged. Irrigation pluming is intact but the house needs new plumbing and electrical. Stamped concrete and concrete driveway all around. Concrete wall surrounds the property.

16. 2024-02-24
    historical
17. 2023-10-17
    price $249,000
18. 2023-02-24
    listed $350,000 Active
19. 1999-11-19
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,404 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,404 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,404
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$6,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Morongo Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #17106

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morongo Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 526.1914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+358.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-17 Listed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-24 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 1999-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,404 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.