5435 SW 204th Ave · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431

$129,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1986 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity awaits with this 1,436 sq ft home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, set on piers on a spacious 1.06-acre lot. The home needs rehab but has good bones, making it a great option for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their own country retreat. The property offers the potential to build a second home, which must be at least 1 square foot smaller than the existing residence. Ideal for extended family, rental income, or a guest house. Pleanty of room for Pool!!! Conveniently located near Rainbow Springs State Park and just a short drive to Dunnellon, Ocala, and Crystal River. Enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, outdoor recreation, and local attraction

Key facts

• 1.06 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 1.06-acre corner lot (approx. 115 x 400)
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $777 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.5% in Rainbow Lakes Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,170/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 72% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $129k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.80%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20500 SW 54th St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-4%)	4mo	$262,000	$190	82
20723 SW Audubon Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-2%)	9mo	$279,900	$199	70
5354 SW 199th Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-4%)	4mo	$255,000	$185	62
20751 SW Cardinal Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (+5%)	12mo	$295,000	$196	60
5310 SW 199th Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (-9%)	1mo	$275,000	$210	58
6263 SW 202nd Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (+0%)	12mo	$300,000	$208	56
6264 SW 204th Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-4%)	8mo	$248,900	$180	55
6320 SW 204th Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-4%)	8mo	$248,900	$180	53
19660 SW 59th Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-4%)	12mo	$248,900	$180	46
6483 SW 204th Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (+5%)	16mo	$325,000	$216	39
19672 SW 59th Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-14%)	7mo	$230,000	$187	34
6357 SW 201st Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (+12%)	8mo	$330,000	$204	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $28,617
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $88,855
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,488/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $850	-5% $813	+0% $777	+5% $740	+10% $704
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $691	+0% $777	+5% $862	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $842	-0.5pp $809	base $777	+0.5pp $743	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20024 SW Beach Blvd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,899	$1.54	22d	1	0.59mi
21423 SW Beach Blvd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,400	$1.31	14d	1	1.10mi
6920 SW 209th Ave Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1618	$3,500	$2.16	22d	1	1.17mi
21425 SW Plantation St Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,800	$1.24	14d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed $129,000 Active
3. 2025-06-02
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,488 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,488 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,488
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $7,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $7,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+84.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,488 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.