11060 Le Grand Ln · Moreno Valley, CA 92557

$429,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,481 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1986 4,356 sqft lot $290/sqft · 16% below area Est $513k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-story home in Moreno Valley. This 1,481 sq. ft. residence features a fireplace, central HVAC, and an attached garage. Notable upgrades include a durable slate roof. Located in the Moreno Valley Unified School District on a 4,356 sq. ft. lot. Probate sale with full IAEA authority. Great potential for homeowners and investors alike, don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Central hvac
• Slate roof
• Fireplace

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• CENTRAL HVAC
• SLATE ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Moreno Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#838 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moreno Valley Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,050 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $429k implies a 359% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,945 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $512,861
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: -16.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11060 Le Grand Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,481 (0%)	1mo	$400,000	$270	97
23871 Parkland Ave	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,474 (-0%)	0mo	$500,000	$339	91
23697 Cold Spg	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,474 (-0%)	1mo	$432,000	$293	90
10960 Village	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-3%)	0mo	$490,000	$340	78
23809 Parkland Ave	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (+8%)	1mo	$570,000	$356	76
23709 Cold Spg	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-12%)	1mo	$515,000	$394	73
11240 Davis	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-7%)	0mo	$525,000	$380	64
23573 Lake Valley Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+6%)	1mo	$485,000	$309	62
23757 Cockatiel	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-7%)	1mo	$519,000	$375	55
24092 Sandy Glade	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-14%)	1mo	$530,000	$417	54
24404 Chippewa	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,372 (-7%)	1mo	$560,000	$408	52
24464 Chippewa	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-11%)	2mo	$540,000	$410	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-91,765
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-117,103
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92557

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,896/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,380

Max offer price $375,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-179	+0% $-300	+5% $-422	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-537	-5% $-419	+0% $-300	+5% $-182	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-191	base $-300	+0.5pp $-411	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23890 Hazelwood Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1534	$3,100	$2.02	5d	1	0.15mi
23606 Parkland Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1474	$2,995	$2.03	5d	1	0.21mi
23913 Parkland Ave Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	1600	$2,750	$1.72	5d	1	0.24mi
10919 Tea Bark Rd Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1633	$2,975	$1.82	44d	1	0.58mi
24519 Chippewa Trl Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,450	$2.36	17d	1	0.67mi
10374 Lake Summit Dr Unit B Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,800	$2.65	3d	1	0.68mi
10374 Lake Summit Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,800	$2.65	19d	1	0.68mi
23214 Sonnet Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,800	$2.04	5d	1	0.71mi
11413 Morning Star Ln Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	2.0	1486	$2,800	$1.88	44d	1	0.74mi
11883 Bayless St Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1308	$2,850	$2.18	18d	1	0.89mi
12030 Graham St Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	2.0	1576	$3,099	$1.97	24d	1	1.07mi
11923 Hartland Pl Moreno Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1655	$3,100	$1.87	44d	1	1.16mi
23780 Hemlock Ave Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	914	$2,498	$2.73	44d	1	1.17mi
23400 Hemlock Ave Moreno Valley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	830	$2,385	$2.87	44d	1	1.18mi
12081 Marigold Ave Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1110	$2,350	$2.12	44d	1	1.25mi
23163 Ironwood Ave Moreno Valley, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$2,465	$2.74	44d	1	1.25mi
12080 Pigeon Pass Rd Moreno Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$2,110	$2.62	44d	1	1.28mi
12159 Calle Sombra Moreno Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$2,134	$2.46	2d	22	1.31mi
12315 Graham St Unit 30 Moreno Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	938	$1,775	$1.89	44d	1	1.35mi
22961 Chambray Dr Moreno Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1139	$2,850	$2.50	19d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-story home in Moreno Valley. This 1,481 sq. ft. residence features a fireplace, central HVAC, and an attached garage. Notable upgrades include a durable slate roof. Located in the Moreno Valley Unified School District on a 4,356 sq. ft. lot. Probate sale with full IAEA authority. Great potential for homeowners and investors alike, don't miss this opportunity!

2. 2026-05-05
   historical Backup Offers Accepted 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-story home in Moreno Valley. This 1,481 sq. ft. residence features a fireplace, central HVAC, and an attached garage. Notable upgrades include a durable slate roof. Located in the Moreno Valley Unified School District on a 4,356 sq. ft. lot. Probate sale with full IAEA authority. Great potential for homeowners and investors alike, don't miss this opportunity!

3. 2026-04-28
   price $429,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-story home in Moreno Valley. This 1,481 sq. ft. residence features a fireplace, central HVAC, and an attached garage. Notable upgrades include a durable slate roof. Located in the Moreno Valley Unified School District on a 4,356 sq. ft. lot. Probate sale with full IAEA authority. Great potential for homeowners and investors alike, don't miss this opportunity!

4. 2026-02-25
   listed $494,600 Active 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-story home in Moreno Valley. This 1,481 sq. ft. residence features a fireplace, central HVAC, and an attached garage. Notable upgrades include a durable slate roof. Located in the Moreno Valley Unified School District on a 4,356 sq. ft. lot. Probate sale with full IAEA authority. Great potential for homeowners and investors alike, don't miss this opportunity!

5. 1986-05-22
   soldstatus $93,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,896 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,260 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$2,896
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,879
• − Management: −$2,879
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$11,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moreno Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625800
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,495
• Composite: 28.36/100
• National rank: #12131
• State rank: #1050 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Moreno Valley

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #838
• US rank: #23203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moreno Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 212,104
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,061
• Household income: $94,804
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 19% Black 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.93%
• Current HPI: 388.882
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+358.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — TheMLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $429,000 TheMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $494,600 TheMLS
• 1986-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,896 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.