7918 Edmonston Cir · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34201

$664,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2003 9,375 sqft lot Est $639k · at est. $112/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of the things that the folks who call University Place home say, is that once through the gate they feel like they are at a private resort, with all the amenities, shaded streets and privacy that comes with it. Residents enjoy two separate community recreation areas with pools, fitness and entertaining areas, walking trails and peaceful streets for biking. This well appointed 4 bedroom house has all the comforts of home and a beautiful saltwater pool surrounded by a large pavered patio and a very private yard. You may never want to leave home, but when you do University Place is just a couple of minutes from UTC, BJ's, tons of restaurants and 75.

Key facts

• Pavered patio
• Saltwater pool
• Private backyard

Tags

• SALTWATER POOL
• PAVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• REMOTE KEVLAR HURRICANE SCREEN
• IMPACT SLIDING WINDOW
• FLORIDA FRIENDLY LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment; Drip irrigation (water conservation)
• Financial info: CDD present; Homestead status: Yes; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Sunstate Management Nicole Banks); Monthly HOA: $112; HOA amenities include pool, fitness center, playground, spa/hot tub, trails, gated community, recreation facilities; Association fee includes pool, maintenance, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund, fidelity bond; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage (39 x 21); Driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Gated community; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected; Fiber optics available; Cable available; BB/HS Internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing; Completed condition; Slab foundation
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built with slab foundation; Year built: (not provided)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Enclosed patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Screened areas; Hurricane shutters; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping with trees; Sidewalks; City limits lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Wood; Other
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry / utility; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $665k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $663k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $585k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($585k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $665k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $585,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $638,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7918 Edmonston Cir	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,314 (0%)	0mo	$640,000	$277	100
7804 Edmonston Cir	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,352 (+2%)	6mo	$690,000	$293	87
8115 Planters Knoll Ter	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,452 (+6%)	0mo	$809,000	$330	76
7915 Edmonston Cir	0.04mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,627 (+14%)	1mo	$725,000	$276	70
7906 Ashley Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,135 (-8%)	7mo	$575,000	$269	64
7340 Saint Georges Way	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,346 (+1%)	1mo	$550,000	$234	58
7707 Ashley Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,027 (-12%)	1mo	$494,304	$244	52
8121 Indigo Ridge Ter	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,073 (-10%)	1mo	$570,000	$275	49
8019 Indigo Ridge Ter	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,073 (-10%)	4mo	$572,000	$276	49
8033 Fairhaven Gln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,561 (+11%)	2mo	$1,435,000	$560	46
8113 Collingwood Ct	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,632 (+14%)	1mo	$980,000	$372	41
7351 Meeting St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,116 (-9%)	10mo	$455,000	$215	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-21,632
• Equity at exit: $141,179

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $77,247
• Equity at exit: $132,349

Cash invested: $186,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34201

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,487
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,590/yr
• Insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,393
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,707

Max offer price $664,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,107	-5% $919	+0% $731	+5% $543	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $469	+0% $731	+5% $993	+10% $1,255
Rate	-1.0pp $1,066	-0.5pp $900	base $731	+0.5pp $559	+1.0pp $383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $166,225
• Closing costs: $19,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7151 83rd Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,095	$1.31	16d	1	0.65mi
7005 Stanhope Pl University Park, FL	4.0	3.0	2846	$9,000	$3.16	24d	1	0.90mi
6914 Stanhope Pl University Park, FL	3.0	4.0	2951	$8,000	$2.71	3d	1	0.95mi
6939 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$8,300	$4.08	24d	1	0.97mi
6909 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	16d	1	0.99mi
6920 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$8,300	$4.06	24d	1	1.02mi
9405 Boxthorn Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2669	$6,900	$2.59	3d	1	1.12mi
6945 74th Street Cir E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2930	$3,300	$1.13	16d	1	1.25mi
6718 Virginia Xing University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$5,250	$3.05	24d	1	1.31mi
7710 Lake Vista Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1762	$2,950	$1.67	24d	1	1.35mi
8133 Misty Oaks Blvd Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	2423	$4,300	$1.77	24d	1	1.39mi
7101 Victoria Cir University Park, FL	3.0	2.5	2254	$3,900	$1.73	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $664,900
3. 2026-03-09
   price $674,999
4. 2026-01-08
   listed $699,900 Active
5. 2017-01-09
   soldstatus $385,000
6. 2017-01-05
   soldstatus $385,000 Sold 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   One of the things that the folks who call University Place home say, is that once through the gate they feel like they are at a private resort, with all the amenities, shaded streets and privacy that comes with it. Residents enjoy two separate community recreation areas with pools, fitness and entertaining areas, walking trails and peaceful streets for biking. This well appointed 4 bedroom house has all the comforts of home and a beautiful saltwater pool surrounded by a large pavered patio and a very private yard. You may never want to leave home, but when you do University Place is just a couple of minutes from UTC, BJ's, tons of restaurants and 75.

7. 2016-11-29
   status Pending 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   One of the things that the folks who call University Place home say, is that once through the gate they feel like they are at a private resort, with all the amenities, shaded streets and privacy that comes with it. Residents enjoy two separate community recreation areas with pools, fitness and entertaining areas, walking trails and peaceful streets for biking. This well appointed 4 bedroom house has all the comforts of home and a beautiful saltwater pool surrounded by a large pavered patio and a very private yard. You may never want to leave home, but when you do University Place is just a couple of minutes from UTC, BJ's, tons of restaurants and 75.

8. 2016-11-18
   listed $399,000 Active 658-char remark

   Show marketing remark (658 chars)

   One of the things that the folks who call University Place home say, is that once through the gate they feel like they are at a private resort, with all the amenities, shaded streets and privacy that comes with it. Residents enjoy two separate community recreation areas with pools, fitness and entertaining areas, walking trails and peaceful streets for biking. This well appointed 4 bedroom house has all the comforts of home and a beautiful saltwater pool surrounded by a large pavered patio and a very private yard. You may never want to leave home, but when you do University Place is just a couple of minutes from UTC, BJ's, tons of restaurants and 75.

9. 2009-09-14
   soldstatus $318,037
10. 2003-02-03
    soldstatus $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,590 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,590 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,245
• − Property taxes: −$7,590
• − Insurance: −$3,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,367
• − Management: −$6,367
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$19,343
• Taxable loss: −$1,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$479
• After-tax cash flow: $9,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 52,177
• Population (ZIP): 3,993

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Current HPI: 173.9689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+930.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $664,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $674,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $699,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-05 Sold (MLS) $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-18 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $318,037 Public Records
• 2003-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,590 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.