124 Pilatus Path · Pearland, TX 77581

$179,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2024 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity!! We are selling our home. Located within the Landing at Pearland, this is one of the largest homes in the park!! 2064 sq ft 4 bed/2 bath home with walk in pantry, large utility room, den, and family room. Also comes with storage shed! ?Features? Gated community Dog park Resort style pool Playground Basketball court Welcome home to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home featuring a smart, split-bedroom layout designed for comfort and privacy. The open-concept kitchen and dining area includes a large center island and walk-in pantry, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The oversized living room offers plenty of space for gatherings, while the separate fa

Key facts

• Gated community
• Resort style pool
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• WALK IN PANTRY
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• STORAGE SHED
• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Pearland ISD (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #47 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,315 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $20,497
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $81,159
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77581

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,859/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $881	-5% $830	+0% $780	+5% $729	+10% $678
Rent	-10% $585	-5% $682	+0% $780	+5% $877	+10% $974
Rate	-1.0pp $870	-0.5pp $825	base $780	+0.5pp $733	+1.0pp $686

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3730 Sunset Meadows Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.0	2350	$2,450	$1.04	2d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,416/yr (+$118/mo · 76.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,859
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $6,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $7,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof, exterior, and foundation work. Landscaping and HVAC maintenance are also needed. The home's current condition is poor, and significant investment is required to bring it up to a livable standard.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof structure in the aerial view.
• Major exterior siding — No visible siding or foundation in the aerial view.
• Major foundation — No visible foundation or structure in the aerial view.
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping or curb appeal in the photos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof would improve the home's structural integrity and appearance.
• Both exterior siding and foundation repair — Repairing the exterior siding and foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system would ensure the home is comfortable and energy-efficient for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof structure in the aerial view.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No visible siding or foundation in the aerial view.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · No visible foundation or structure in the aerial view.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping or curb appeal in the photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof would improve the home's structural integrity and appearance. ↑
• Both exterior siding and foundation repair — Repairing the exterior siding and foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and curb appeal. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system would ensure the home is comfortable and energy-efficient for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834440
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,091
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #1430
• State rank: #47 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,332
• Household income: $111,139
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 20% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.56%
• Current HPI: 244.7942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $179,000 FSBO.com