8819 Falcon Trace Dr S · Jacksonville, FL 32222

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1986 0.27 ac lot Est $235k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale.Welcome to 8819 South Falcon Trace Drive , a 3 BR, 2 BA ranch-style home featuring a functional 1,162 sq ft layout in the desirable Falcon Trace neighborhood. Major systems have been updated, including a newer roof and AC handler. This property offers a spacious fenced backyard with an inviting in-ground pool, perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find tile flooring in the main living areas and carpeted bedrooms, along with a covered front entry. Additional features include an attached single-car garage and ample outdoor space. With solid bones and excellent potential, this home is ideal for buyers or investors ready to add value and make it their own. Conveniently located between SR-23 and I-295

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Tile flooring
• Outdoor space

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• IN-GROUND POOL
• TILE FLOORING
• COVERED FRONT ENTRY
• ATTACHED SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Property type: Residential (Single Family Residence); Zoning: RLD-60; Lot about 0.27 acres (0.25–0.5 acre); Private in-ground pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,460 sq ft
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($144/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Enterprise Learning Academy (math 44% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 726 students, 55% FRL); Charger Academy (math 33% / reading 26%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 961 students, 71% FRL); Westside High School (math 26% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,583 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9051 Prosperity Lake Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,133 (-2%)	4mo	$255,000	$225	76
7503 Pheasant Run Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	6mo	$225,000	$195	71
8409 Rockridge Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+8%)	9mo	$257,550	$206	61
7649 Jeremy David Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+14%)	2mo	$190,000	$143	60
8541 Moss Pointe Trl N	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+10%)	9mo	$265,000	$208	59
8139 Fieldside Dr W	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+13%)	0mo	$262,000	$199	59
8250 Springer Ct	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,222 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$188	54
7561 Pheasant Run Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,244 (+7%)	16mo	$220,000	$177	49
7531 Collins Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+6%)	21mo	$249,000	$202	46
8623 Creedmoor Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+13%)	13mo	$258,000	$197	45
7728 Andes Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,257 (+8%)	16mo	$258,000	$205	42
8452 Walden Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-12%)	15mo	$217,000	$213	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-33,931
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,276
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32222

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,034/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $71	+0% $12	+5% $-47	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-65	+0% $12	+5% $89	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $65	base $12	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7573 Falcon Trace Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,750	$1.26	15d	1	0.16mi
7529 Falcon Trace Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,850	$1.25	4d	1	0.17mi
8137 Leafcrest Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,855	$1.30	9d	1	0.20mi
8522 Sugartree Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,895	$1.32	6d	1	0.30mi
7540 Collins Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,785	$1.21	25d	1	0.58mi
8326 Walden Rd E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,515	$1.49	5d	1	0.68mi
7539 Walden Rd E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	956	$1,850	$1.94	9d	1	0.71mi
7852 Catskills Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,276	$1.68	4d	1	0.75mi
7820 Collins Ridge Blvd E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,950	$1.44	22d	1	0.75mi
7650 Dover Cliff Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,880	$1.51	6d	1	0.79mi
8077 Welbeck Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,985	$1.36	12d	1	0.88mi
8382 Stelling Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,750	$1.37	6d	1	0.92mi
8584 Bandera Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,850	$1.27	25d	1	0.98mi
8131 Cumberland Gap Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,624	$1.25	16d	1	0.98mi
8903 Hipps Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	935	$1,400	$1.50	25d	1	1.00mi
8445 Allwine Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,724	$1.24	12d	1	1.02mi
8445 Allwine Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,724	$1.24	16d	1	1.02mi
8077 Cumberland Gap Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1307	$1,750	$1.34	25d	1	1.02mi
8321 Crosswind Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	23d	1	1.08mi
3042 Waters View Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,749	$1.36	4d	1	1.15mi
7840 Old Middleburg Rd S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,495	$1.31	23d	1	1.23mi
3419 Bristol Bridge Rd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$3,200	$2.19	5d	1	1.34mi
312 Turtle Dove Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,950	$1.51	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $210,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-02-10
    listed $210,000 Active
14. 2026-02-05
    listed $210,000 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Short Sale.Welcome to 8819 South Falcon Trace Drive , a 3 BR, 2 BA ranch-style home featuring a functional 1,162 sq ft layout in the desirable Falcon Trace neighborhood. Major systems have been updated, including a newer roof and AC handler. This property offers a spacious fenced backyard with an inviting in-ground pool, perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find tile flooring in the main living areas and carpeted bedrooms, along with a covered front entry. Additional features include an attached single-car garage and ample outdoor space. With solid bones and excellent potential, this home is ideal for buyers or investors ready to add value and make it their own. Conveniently located between SR-23 and I-295

15. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus $295,000 Sold 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

16. 2022-04-27
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

17. 2022-04-23
    price $295,000 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

18. 2022-04-23
    status Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

19. 2022-04-19
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

20. 2022-04-11
    historical Active - Contingent 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

21. 2022-04-08
    listed $320,000 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Back on the market. The buyer is ready to sell. Make this your home. Large back yard with a pool. Great for those hot summer days and evening get-togethers. All appliances including washer and dryer convey. The home has a full surveillance system including the TV in the living room that all conveys. Put your touches on this one and make it your home.

22. 2016-06-28
    soldstatus $105,000
23. 1998-11-05
    soldstatus $82,000
24. 1993-03-17
    soldstatus $55,200
25. 1986-03-01
    soldstatus $57,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,034 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,034
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$803
• After-tax cash flow: $947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,258
• Household income: $85,649
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.56%
• Current HPI: 257.6466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+264.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $210,000 realMLS
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) $295,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-27 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-04-23 Price Changed $295,000 realMLS
• 2022-04-23 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-04-19 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-04-11 Contingent — realMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $320,000 realMLS
• 2016-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1993-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $55,200 Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,034 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.