Blackbird Plan · Palmetto, FL 34221

$307,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Blackbird is a beautiful home design featuring 1,453 square feet of open-concept living space. The home brings forward 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and more! Through the foyer, you'll find the kitchen overlooks the dining and great room, which leads out to the patio for true indoor/outdoor living, and perfect for enjoying the warm Florida weather. The laundry room sits between the kitchen and 2-car garage. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom, and the primary suite is tucked privately away at the back of the home.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 199 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN OVERLOOKS DINING
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE TUCKED PRIVATELY

🏗️ New construction. The $307,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $255,089 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,000
• List price: $307,999
• Delta: -5.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13709 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	3mo	$305,999	$210	87
13435 Shellmore Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+2%)	6mo	$294,000	$198	87
9333 Chiswell Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	2mo	$293,999	$202	85
13816 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	6mo	$291,364	$200	85
13807 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	6mo	$309,939	$213	84
9332 Chiswell Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	6mo	$280,250	$193	82
13513 Shellmore Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+11%)	2mo	$334,630	$208	70
13424 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+11%)	3mo	$339,000	$211	69
13808 Shellmore Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	5mo	$315,999	$197	69
13412 Shellmore Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+11%)	4mo	$345,500	$215	68
13705 Shellmore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+10%)	6mo	$300,999	$188	67
9138 Dalera Cv	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+11%)	6mo	$325,000	$202	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-78,459
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-120,595
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,844 ($226/sqft)
• Median days on market: 148 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,551 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $283,210

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-176	+0% $-289	+5% $-401	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-390	+0% $-289	+5% $-188	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-206	base $-289	+0.5pp $-373	+1.0pp $-459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,400	$1.76	1d	1	0.96mi
11752 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,500	$1.58	63d	1	1.05mi
8232 Reefbay Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,575	$1.55	10d	1	1.29mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	99d	1	1.36mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	112d	1	1.38mi
10650 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	5d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8936 Killbarry Ln, Palmetto, FL 34221Status: Active
• Financial info: Listed for $303,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Plan: Blackbird)
• Exterior features: Plan: BlackbirdNew construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,453 living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $307,999 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $307,999 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $307,999 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $307,999 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $307,999 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $307,999 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $307,999 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $307,999 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $307,999 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $307,999 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $307,999 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $307,999 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $307,999 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $307,999 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $307,999 Active 177 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $307,999 Active 176 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $307,999 Active 175 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $307,999 Active 174 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $307,999 Active 173 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $307,999 Active 172 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $306,999 Active 171 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $306,999 Active 170 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $306,999 Active 169 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $306,999 Active 168 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $306,999 Active 167 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $306,999 Active 166 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $306,999 Active 165 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $306,999 Active 164 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $306,999 Active 163 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $306,999 Active 162 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $306,999 Active 161 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $306,999 Active 160 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $306,999 Active 159 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $306,999 Active 158 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $306,999 Active 157 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $306,999 Active 156 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $306,999 Active 155 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $306,999 Active 154 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $306,999 Active 153 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $306,999 Active 152 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $306,999 Active 151 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $306,999 Active 150 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $306,999 Active 146 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $306,999 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $306,999 Active 143 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $306,999 Active 139 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $306,999 Active 138 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $306,999 Active 137 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $306,999 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $306,999 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,449
• − Management: −$2,449
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$9,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8936 Killbarry Ln, Palmetto, FL 34221Status: Active
• Financial info: Listed for $303,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Plan: Blackbird)
• Exterior features: Plan: BlackbirdNew construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,453 living area)