Is 313 Redbud Ridge Dr in Fulshear, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-642/mo modeled cash flow at a $319,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 313 Redbud Ridge Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,432/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.09

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$319,990

313 Redbud Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77423

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Presley home plan offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The gourmet kitchen overlooks the spacious family room, creating an ideal space for both entertaining and everyday life. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, providing a private retreat away from the upstairs bedrooms. The second floor features three additional bedrooms, along with a large loft area that offers extra living space and built-in storage. A shared bathroom with a shower and tub combination serves the upstairs bedrooms. This home features the AW Collection® Milan, with sleek gray cabinetry, smooth ceramics, and sophisticated design touches that create a chic, European-inspired living space. This versatile home has a variety of finishes, allowing you to create a space that reflects your style and meets your family's needs. Located in Azalea!!

Key facts

Large loft area
Sleek gray cabinetry
Primary suite

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (16.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (24.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $243k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,151 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.16%
Cash-on-cash: -7.61%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $361,762
List price: $319,990
Delta: -10.16%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,311 (0%)	0mo	$319,990	$138	100
309 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,272 (-2%)	2mo	$390,843	$172	95
321 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-20%)	2mo	$361,762	$194	71
305 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,756 (-24%)	2mo	$343,430	$196	65
328 Palero Path	1.29mi	4/3.5	2,360 (+2%)	2mo	$329,990	$140	56
517 Stone Placa Trl	1.20mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-6%)	2mo	$318,760	$147	54
481 Stone Placa Trl	1.27mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-6%)	6mo	$299,990	$138	50
473 Stone Placa Trl	1.28mi	4/3.0	2,102 (-9%)	2mo	$324,990	$155	46
305 Stone Placa Trl	1.20mi	4/3.5	2,472 (+7%)	5mo	$338,990	$137	45
440 Stone Placa Trl	1.33mi	4/3.0	2,102 (-9%)	4mo	$329,990	$157	45
325 Stone Placa Trl	1.22mi	4/2.5	1,993 (-14%)	1mo	$259,990	$130	41
480 Stone Placa Trl	1.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-11%)	4mo	$289,990	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.0%
Equity multiple: -0.05×
Total profit: $-106,571
Equity at exit: $53,940

10-year hold

IRR: -62.6%
Equity multiple: -0.70×
Total profit: $-172,697
Equity at exit: $31,279

Cash invested: $101,293 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 68 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 102.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $309,990 ($143/sqft)
Median days on market: 69 d
This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +9.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1235
Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,432 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,897
Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,426/yr
Insurance: −$151
HOA: −$63
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
Net cashflow: $-642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,244

Max offer price $268,840

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-392	-5% $-517	+0% $-642	+5% $-767	+10% $-892
Rent	-10% $-834	-5% $-738	+0% $-642	+5% $-546	+10% $-450
Rate	-1.0pp $-460	-0.5pp $-550	base $-642	+0.5pp $-736	+1.0pp $-831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $90,440
Closing costs: $10,853
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure applies
HOA & community: Azalea Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $750Community poolCurbs

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
Security: Storm/security shutters
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionFull ownershipSlab foundationFacing not specified
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and stone constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Ashton Woods
Exterior features: Covered patioCovered deckPatioPrivate yardFully fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigationStorm/security shutters

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenDisposalMicrowave
Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
Flooring: CarpetTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas, zoned)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-06

days on market $319,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $319,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $319,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $319,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $319,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $319,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $319,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $319,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $319,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $319,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $319,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $319,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $319,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $319,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $319,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $319,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $319,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $319,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $319,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $319,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $319,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $319,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $319,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $319,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-06

pricedays on market $319,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $324,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $324,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $324,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-02

days on marketlisting id $324,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $324,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $324,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $324,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $324,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $324,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $324,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-24

pricedays on market $324,990 Active 81 DOM

Show marketing remark (888 chars)

The Presley home plan offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The gourmet kitchen overlooks the spacious family room, creating an ideal space for both entertaining and everyday life. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, providing a private retreat away from the upstairs bedrooms. The second floor features three additional bedrooms, along with a large loft area that offers extra living space and built-in storage. A shared bathroom with a shower and tub combination serves the upstairs bedrooms. This home features the AW Collection® Milan, with sleek gray cabinetry, smooth ceramics, and sophisticated design touches that create a chic, European-inspired living space. This versatile home has a variety of finishes, allowing you to create a space that reflects your style and meets your family's needs. Located in Azalea!!
2026-06-22

days on market $339,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $339,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $339,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $339,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-16

pricedays on market $339,990 Active 73 DOM

Show marketing remark (888 chars)

The Presley home plan offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout perfect for modern living. The gourmet kitchen overlooks the spacious family room, creating an ideal space for both entertaining and everyday life. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor, providing a private retreat away from the upstairs bedrooms. The second floor features three additional bedrooms, along with a large loft area that offers extra living space and built-in storage. A shared bathroom with a shower and tub combination serves the upstairs bedrooms. This home features the AW Collection® Milan, with sleek gray cabinetry, smooth ceramics, and sophisticated design touches that create a chic, European-inspired living space. This versatile home has a variety of finishes, allowing you to create a space that reflects your style and meets your family's needs. Located in Azalea!!
2026-06-15

days on market $349,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $349,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $349,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $349,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $349,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $349,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $349,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $349,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $349,990 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,178
− Mortgage interest: −$20,264
− Property taxes: −$5,426
− Insurance: −$1,809
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
− Management: −$2,334
− HOA: −$756
− Depreciation: −$10,524
Taxable loss: −$14,270

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,425
After-tax cash flow: $-4,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,555–$34,665 screening

This two-story home in the Presley plan is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

Score: 69/100
State rank: #430
US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
City population: 41,324
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-07-01 Listed $324,990 HARMLS
2026-06-24 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
2026-06-23 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
2026-06-16 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
2026-06-16 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
2026-04-15 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
2026-04-14 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
2026-04-08 Price Changed $354,990 Zillow
2026-04-07 Price Changed $354,990 HARMLS
2026-04-06 Listed $369,990 Zillow
2026-04-05 Price Changed $369,990 HARMLS
2026-04-04 Listed $401,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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