Canon Plan · Angleton, TX 77515

$327,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

Key facts

• Splash pad
• Scenic lakes
• Prime location

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• MODERN RECREATION CENTER
• SPLASH PAD
• PLAYGROUND
• SCENIC LAKES
• PRIME LOCATION

🏗️ New construction. The $327,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,727.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $328k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Angleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Isabella El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 418 students, 68% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,683 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,727
• List price: $327,990
• Delta: -2.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1958 Parks Edge Ln	0.16mi	5/4.0	2,817 (-4%)	4mo	$385,270	$137	78
1727 Warm Breeze Dr	0.12mi	5/4.0	2,817 (-4%)	8mo	$390,000	$138	77
1927 Stargazer Ln	0.14mi	5/4.0	3,244 (+10%)	3mo	$266,991	$82	70
1943 Stargazer Ln	0.17mi	5/4.0	3,244 (+10%)	3mo	$298,990	$92	69
3514 Cardinal Pointe Dr	0.23mi	5/4.0	3,244 (+10%)	0mo	$307,990	$95	68
1910 Stargazer Ln	0.15mi	5/4.0	3,249 (+10%)	6mo	$363,990	$112	67
1943 Starlight St	0.21mi	5/4.0	3,244 (+10%)	3mo	$299,990	$92	66
3648 Crosspointe Pass	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,513 (-15%)	8mo	$375,000	$149	58
1926 Stargazer Ln	0.17mi	5/3.5	2,522 (-14%)	10mo	$329,990	$131	58
3603 Crosspointe Pass	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,507 (-15%)	9mo	$365,000	$146	54
1706 Prairie Ridge Ct	0.27mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,580 (-12%)	8mo	$340,000	$132	53
1577 Elm Ct	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,625 (-11%)	3mo	$399,950	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-69,724
• Equity at exit: $50,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-80,008
• Equity at exit: $29,114

Cash invested: $94,284 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $333,990 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,766
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,051/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,030

Max offer price $302,099

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-123	+0% $-239	+5% $-356	+10% $-472
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-347	+0% $-239	+5% $-132	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-154	base $-239	+0.5pp $-327	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,182
• Closing costs: $10,102
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1927 Stargazer Ln Angleton, TX	5.0	4.0	3244	$2,900	$0.89	69d	1	0.11mi
3602 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	4.0	3.0	1959	$2,500	$1.28	116d	1	0.22mi
2126 Mosaic Valley Ct Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,300	$1.16	127d	1	0.28mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named Canon
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,943

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open plan living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $327,990 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $327,990 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $327,990 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $332,990 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $332,990 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $332,990 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $332,990 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $332,990 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $332,990 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    pricedays on market $332,990 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $337,990 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $337,990 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $337,990 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $337,990 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $337,990 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $337,990 Active 190 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $337,990 Active 189 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $337,990 Active 188 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $337,990 Active 187 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $337,990 Active 186 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $337,990 Active 185 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $337,990 Active 184 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $337,990 Active 183 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $337,990 Active 182 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $337,990 Active 181 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $337,990 Active 180 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $337,990 Active 179 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $337,990 Active 178 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $337,990 Active 177 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $337,990 Active 176 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $337,990 Active 175 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $337,990 Active 174 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $337,990 Active 173 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $337,990 Active 172 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $337,990 Active 171 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $337,990 Active 170 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $337,990 Active 169 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $337,990 Active 168 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $337,990 Active 167 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $337,990 Active 166 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $337,990 Active 165 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $337,990 Active 164 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $337,990 Active 163 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $337,990 Active 162 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $337,990 Active 161 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $337,990 Active 160 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $337,990 Active 159 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $337,990 Active 158 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $337,990 Active 157 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $337,990 Active 156 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,862
• − Property taxes: −$5,051
• − Insurance: −$2,481
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − Depreciation: −$9,796
• Taxable loss: −$8,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and modern layout with a luxurious owner's suite and versatile game room. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the home's curb appeal and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and ensure comfort for tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rancho Isabella El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Angleton J H School F TX #911/1,662 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named Canon
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,943

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open plan living area