13203 State Route 78 Rte · Havana, IL 62644

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1977 0.66 ac lot $78/sqft · 18% below area Est $109k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 3BR/2BA ranch home set on two-thirds of an acre in a peaceful country setting, complete with a spacious detached two-car garage (35' x 12'). The home offers main-level living with a generous living room, large eat-in kitchen, three bedrooms, two full baths, and several included appliances. Recent improvements include a furnace and central air installed in 2025, along with 30" blown-in ceiling insulation, and a sandpoint well added in 2024. Additional highlights include replacement windows, a large rear wooden deck, ideal for grilling and relaxing evenings, a storage shed, and a bonus room off the garage.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Storage shed
• Main-level living

Tags

• TWO-THIRDS OF AN ACRE
• MAIN-LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• LARGE REAR WOODEN DECK
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.66-acre lot (dimensions approx. 135 x 210); Not new construction

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system (water/sewage); Gas for water heater and heating
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story components with additional upper, lower, basement and other levels; Built in 1977
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Replacement windows; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary measurements on main level; individual bedroom sizes approx. 13 x 11, 10 x 9.5, and 10 x 9.66 feet)
• Flooring: Carpet in main living areas and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#989 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Havana CUSD 126 (town): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #448 of 620 in IL (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Havana High School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #379 of 693 statewide, top 57%, 279 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $90k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.18%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,493
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -17.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13064 County Road 1375 Rd E	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	19mo	$75,000	$65	69
13905 E County Road 1320 N	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	2mo	$55,000	$55	64
12654 N State Route 78 Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-13%)	14mo	$125,000	$125	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $19,046
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $59,796
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62644

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $433/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $690

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $579	-5% $554	+0% $528	+5% $503	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $475	+0% $528	+5% $582	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $573	-0.5pp $551	base $528	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $89,900 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-04-29
   listed $99,900 Active 621-char remark
9. 2015-09-15
   soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $433 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 185.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$433
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $5,160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $5,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Havana CUSD 126
• NCES district ID: 1718510
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,881
• Composite: 16.52/100
• National rank: #9181
• State rank: #448 of 620 in IL

Livability — Havana

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #989
• US rank: #19077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,657
• Population (ZIP): 4,657

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,087 people
• By 2030: 11,283 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 9,766 · -19.2%
• By 2050: 8,421 · -30.3%
• By 2075: 5,785 · -52.1%
• By 2100: 3,888 · -67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 27.8% · R 70.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+39.5 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+6.3 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.81%
• Current HPI: 115.1077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+52.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $89,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $99,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $433 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.