5756 NE 165th Terrace Rd · Lake Kerr, FL 34488

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2009 0.29 ac lot $57/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great potential! Property is a fixer upper. Huge back porch looks out over the water! Seller does not have any records on functionality or condition. Investor owned, seller has no records on the property. Buyer to do their own due diligence. Property will not qualify for fha/va/usda financing due to the current condition of the mobile homes. Sold as is, cash only, no financing.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $70k implies a 399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.40%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,306
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -57.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $12,428
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $41,836
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34488

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,141/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $75,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Great potential! Property is a fixer upper. Huge back porch looks out over the water! Seller does not have any records on functionality or condition. Investor owned, seller has no records on the property. Buyer to do their own due diligence. Property will not qualify for fha/va/usda financing due to the current condition of the mobile homes. Sold as is, cash only, no financing.

17. 2002-03-01
    soldstatus $14,000
18. 2001-03-21
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,141
• − Insurance: −$1,852
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,709
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$890
• After-tax cash flow: $3,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,525

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 227.3763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,141 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.