1211 Apache Cir · Tavares, FL 32778

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1981 6,264 sqft lot Est $155k · 17% under $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. 55+ community. Desirable community with indoor and outdoor pools, a spacious clubhouse hosting frequent social events. The home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, walk-in closets, a large living room with bay windows, a big Florida room, and a carport with a new roof. Lovely wood floors in most rooms. Open floor plan offers a great lifestyle. The lanai is spacious - perfect for a hobby room - plants will love it.

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Big florida room
• Spacious clubhouse

Tags

• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• SPACIOUS CLUBHOUSE
• FREQUENT SOCIAL EVENTS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• BIG FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; No lease restrictions indicated; Direction faces: East
• Financial info: Annual taxes listed (2025): $400; Total monthly fees shown as $52 (total annual fees $624)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $52, association approval required); Association name: Harold Barkdull; Community clubhouse and pool; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water not listed; Public sewer; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Residential property; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Building area listed as 2,010 sq ft (public records)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.14 acres; Lot about 0 to less than 1/4 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Outdoor laundry access; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $129k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.01%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,836
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1687 Elkhart Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-1%)	6mo	$160,000	$160	78
1024 Capella Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+9%)	4mo	$55,000	$50	74
1209 Apache Cir	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	9mo	$128,000	$111	69
1424 Mohawk Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+15%)	2mo	$195,000	$168	69
1408 Skyline Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+13%)	8mo	$92,000	$80	67
1681 Elkhart Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,125 (+11%)	7mo	$172,000	$153	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $17,392
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $69,847
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $400/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	16d	1	0.37mi
1105 N Rockingham Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$1,650	$2.05	5d	1	0.44mi
743 E Alfred St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.57mi
380 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,399	$1.87	15d	1	0.57mi
542 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,400	$1.72	24d	1	0.57mi
1632 Tudor Ln Unit 1632 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,595	$1.52	18d	1	0.66mi
1403 E Alfred St Unit 200 Tavares, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	18d	1	0.74mi
2225 Cypress Ct Unit 2C Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,000	$1.50	24d	1	0.77mi
2420 Ann Rou Rd Unit 201 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,555	$1.55	18d	1	1.20mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.23mi
2460 Ann Rou Rd Unit 606 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,750	$1.50	18d	1	1.31mi
2533 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,100	$1.42	3d	1	1.43mi
2551 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,081	$1.40	16d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   price $129,000
2. 2026-04-08
   price $133,900
3. 2026-03-14
   listed $134,900 Active
4. 2000-07-18
   soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,071 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 167.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$400
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $5,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,214
• After-tax cash flow: $5,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+193.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $133,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $400 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.