2613 Chelsea Dr · Tyler, TX 75701

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1962 8,712 sqft lot $124/sqft · 26% below area Est $217k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,307 square feet of comfortable living space. With a smart layout and practical features, this property is ideal for both homeowners and investors. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting living area that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining spaces—perfect for daily living and entertaining. The three spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the two bathrooms offer convenience and comfort. The home also includes a 2-car carport, providing covered parking and added protection from the elements. Outdoors, the property features a generous yard with plenty of room for activities, gardening, or future improvements. Currently, the home is rented, making it a great opportunity for investors seeking immediate income. For buyers, this also means a smooth transition when planning ahead. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car carport combines value, space, and opportunity—don’t miss your chance to make it yours.

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Covered parking
• Living area

Tags

• LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN AND DINING SPACES
• GENEROUS YARD
• COVERED PARKING
• HOME OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,605 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,241
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -10.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3814 Pine Manor Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+10%)	14mo	$265,000	$153	67
3021 Williamsburg Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+6%)	1mo	$225,000	$135	64
3212 Timberlane Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+9%)	3mo	$274,000	$160	63
2216 Crestwood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-1%)	14mo	$260,000	$166	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,727
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,553
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75701

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,355/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $174,751

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3629 McDonald Rd Tyler, TX	2.0	2.0	1287	$1,325	$1.03	21d	1	0.11mi
2531 Westminster Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,425	$1.01	21d	1	0.15mi
2310 Haverhill Dr Tyler, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,615	$1.35	21d	1	0.36mi
3207 Timberlane Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$1,750	$0.98	43d	1	0.45mi
9149 County Road 273 Tyler, TX	2.0	2.0	1597	$1,595	$1.00	21d	1	0.93mi
3127 Andy Ln Tyler, TX	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,100	$1.21	43d	1	0.96mi
2725 Tanglewood Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$1,675	$0.86	13d	1	0.98mi
3113 Greg Ln Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1157	$1,300	$1.12	13d	1	1.02mi
2725 Amy Ln Tyler, TX	2.0	1.5	1146	$1,520	$1.33	13d	1	1.03mi
3032 Santa Elena Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,485	$1.69	43d	1	1.13mi
3038 Santa Elena Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,485	$1.90	13d	1	1.14mi
2319 Hunter St Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,225	$1.02	43d	1	1.41mi
2401 Airline Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.5	1512	$1,325	$0.88	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $194,900 1054-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

    Welcome to this well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,307 square feet of comfortable living space. With a smart layout and practical features, this property is ideal for both homeowners and investors. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting living area that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining spaces—perfect for daily living and entertaining. The three spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the two bathrooms offer convenience and comfort. The home also includes a 2-car carport, providing covered parking and added protection from the elements. Outdoors, the property features a generous yard with plenty of room for activities, gardening, or future improvements. Currently, the home is rented, making it a great opportunity for investors seeking immediate income. For buyers, this also means a smooth transition when planning ahead. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car carport combines value, space, and opportunity—don’t miss your chance to make it yours.

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $199,900 Active 1054-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

    Welcome to this well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,307 square feet of comfortable living space. With a smart layout and practical features, this property is ideal for both homeowners and investors. Inside, you’ll find a bright and inviting living area that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining spaces—perfect for daily living and entertaining. The three spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the two bathrooms offer convenience and comfort. The home also includes a 2-car carport, providing covered parking and added protection from the elements. Outdoors, the property features a generous yard with plenty of room for activities, gardening, or future improvements. Currently, the home is rented, making it a great opportunity for investors seeking immediate income. For buyers, this also means a smooth transition when planning ahead. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car carport combines value, space, and opportunity—don’t miss your chance to make it yours.

19. 2025-12-05
    price $199,400
20. 2021-10-06
    soldstatus
21. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus
22. 2021-08-20
    listed $179,900
23. 2016-05-26
    soldstatus
24. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus
25. 2016-04-01
    listed $127,000
26. 2008-11-19
    soldstatus
27. 1998-12-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,355 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,567 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$3,355
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$4,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,135
• After-tax cash flow: $-234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyler, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,344
• Household income: $66,401
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.78%
• Current HPI: 207.238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+53.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $194,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $199,900 GTAR
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $199,400 GTAR
• 2021-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-08-20 Listed $179,900 GTAR
• 2016-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2016-04-01 Listed $127,000 GTAR
• 2008-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,355 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.