2206 Starstuck Ct · Heartland, TX 75114

$282,799

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Land · 128 Days on market

Built 2025 6,011 sqft lot $137/sqft · at area comps Est $288k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LENNAR Classic Collection at Eastland - Elton Floorplan

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($60/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Heartland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,931 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,199
• List price: $282,799
• Delta: -1.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,584
• Equity at exit: $42,166

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-39,599
• Equity at exit: $24,451

Cash invested: $79,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,483
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,549/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,243

Max offer price $282,799

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,700
• Closing costs: $8,484
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.11mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	0.14mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.14mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.17mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	44d	1	0.18mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.19mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	24d	1	0.20mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	0.23mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	0.24mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	24d	1	0.24mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	10d	1	0.31mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	44d	1	0.32mi
3916 Ford Dr Heartland, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$2,600	$1.05	21d	1	0.37mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	0.41mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	4d	1	0.44mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	3d	1	0.49mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	44d	1	0.52mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	1d	1	0.53mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	2315	$1,720	$0.74	6d	1	0.61mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	24d	1	0.66mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	44d	1	0.67mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.73mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	44d	1	0.80mi
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,406	$1.61	1d	5	0.80mi
4009 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2515	$2,499	$0.99	44d	1	0.81mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	44d	1	0.83mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	44d	1	0.88mi
4005 Indian Paintbrush Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2866	$2,700	$0.94	13d	1	0.90mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	44d	1	0.91mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	3d	1	0.91mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	44d	1	0.95mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.98mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.98mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	19d	1	0.99mi
1609 Duke Dr Crandall, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1614	$2,490	$1.54	1d	1	1.10mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	1d	1	1.18mi
3716 Pincoffs Cv Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2374	$2,619	$1.10	24d	1	1.23mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	19d	1	1.26mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	15d	1	1.32mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	44d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $282,799 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   LENNAR Classic Collection at Eastland - Elton Floorplan

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   LENNAR Classic Collection at Eastland - Elton Floorplan

3. 2026-02-06
   price $281,999 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   LENNAR Classic Collection at Eastland - Elton Floorplan

4. 2026-01-06
   listed $286,999 Active 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   LENNAR Classic Collection at Eastland - Elton Floorplan

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,175 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,626/yr (+$302/mo · 234.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,841
• − Property taxes: −$1,549
• − Insurance: −$1,414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,227
• Taxable loss: −$4,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $282,799 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $281,999 NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $286,999 NTREIS