146 Chamberlin Dr · West Seneca, NY 14210

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,187 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1931 5,200 sqft lot Est $238k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP in this artistic 1930’s double in Town of West Seneca! Each unit is a 2/1 w/ spacious LR/DR and original hardwood floors. Lower offers updated Maple kitchen cabinets, breakfast bar and a pantry. Bathroom has nostalgic basketweave mosaic tile floor, a large vanity and Corian shower surround. Hardwood floors are in excellent condition. LR/DR has tilt in Pella windows (replaced to look like original time period) and a faux fireplace w/ gumwood mantle. Upper offers a Retro style kitchen and original floor to ceiling 1930’s style cabinets and a built in ironing board! Living room w/ original faux fireplace and mantle. Full attic for additional storage! Lovely ba

Key facts

• Large vanity
• Breakfast bar
• 5,200 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED MAPLE KITCHEN CABINETS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE VANITY
• CORIAN SHOWER SURROUND
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TILT IN PELLA WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-512 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $181,726 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.84%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,383
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 Chamberlin Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,187 (0%)	8mo	$290,000	$133	94
154 Chamberlin Dr	0.01mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,182 (-0%)	2mo	$242,400	$111	92
46 Kirkwood Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-3%)	5mo	$198,700	$93	81
30 Chamberlin Dr	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,208 (+1%)	5mo	$239,800	$109	79
126 Chamberlin Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,978 (-10%)	14mo	$190,000	$96	71
71 Buffum St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,136 (-2%)	6mo	$160,000	$75	63
11 Dorr St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (-11%)	4mo	$179,900	$93	60
14 Winegar Pl	0.17mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,469 (+13%)	5mo	$187,000	$76	60
81 Buffum St	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-3%)	15mo	$265,000	$125	55
109 Harlem Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,998 (-9%)	12mo	$237,000	$119	54
27 Junior Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,974 (-10%)	18mo	$168,000	$85	53
74 Cazenovia St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,938 (-11%)	17mo	$331,650	$171	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $129,471
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $430,777
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,358/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,465

Max offer price $189,453

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
181 Willett St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2704	$1,550	$0.57	2d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-03
   soldstatus $290,000
2. 2025-09-04
   status Pending
3. 2025-08-14
   listed $279,900 Active
4. 2016-05-06
   soldstatus $144,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,358 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,544 · $379/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$16/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,358
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$11,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,101
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $279,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $144,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,358 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.