12315 US Highway 441 #23 · Tavares, FL 32778

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1970 $100/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunities like this don’t come around often. . Run! Do not walk to secure your slice of lakefront living! Welcome to Unit #23 at Three Lake Mobile Home Park, offering approximately 60 feet of frontage on beautiful Lake Eustis, one of seven lakes that make up The Harris Chain of Lakes. Bring your creativity and vision to transform this space into the lake retreat you’ve always imagined. The 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits right along the shoreline, and whether you’re shopping for lake front living full time or a second home… You just found it! Situated in a resident-owned Co-Op community, the property includes a carport along with a workshop and or storage area whi

Key facts

• 60 feet of frontage
• Boat slips available
• Shared lake access

Tags

• 60 FEET OF FRONTAGE
• CARPORT
• WORKSHOP AND STORAGE AREA
• SHARED LAKE ACCESS
• BOAT SLIPS AVAILABLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned CO-OP; Property type: Residential (Mobile Home); Other structures: Storage; Private maintained road
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $100; total annual fees $1,200; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $100 (includes common area taxes); Association approval required; Association name: Nicholas Waggoner; Senior community; Community mailbox; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water (also canal/lake for irrigation); Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected; BB/HS internet available
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Lakefront location with water access; Fishing pier; Other exterior features; Mature landscaping with trees; Landscaped lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Storage room

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $129,900 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.88%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $17,473
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $70,842
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	18d	1	0.45mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	14d	1	0.74mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	4d	1	0.96mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.98mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	22d	1	1.07mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	1.07mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	24d	1	1.13mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.19mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	3d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $129,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $5,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $5,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,121 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.