171 Pauline St · Holbrook, NY 11741

$549,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1974 3,920 sqft lot $394/sqft · 15% below area Est $644k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity in Holbrook! Charming, Bright & Well Maintained 3 Bedroom & 1.5 Bath Colonial on a Peaceful, Dead-End Street and Nicely Manicured Property. XL Kitchen w/ SS Appliances, Comfortable Living Room w/ Cozy & Efficient Pellet Stove. Large Dining Room w/ Exit to Backyard. Beautiful LVP Flooring Throughout the First Level. Full & Half Baths Attractively Updated. Well Sized Bedrooms w/ WIC Closets. (3) Ductless Units Include AC, Heat & Dehumidifier Options, Updated Windows. Pull-Down Stairs Attic, Maintenance-Free Vinyl Fencing All Around, 4 Zone IGS, Backyard Paver Patio. Don't Let This One Pass You By!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 48 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-840 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $379k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Holbrook — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $360k; list at $549k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,930 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $644,182
• List price: $549,000
• Delta: -14.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Philip St	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,311 (-6%)	7mo	$635,000	$484	80
170 Officials Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+1%)	11mo	$600,000	$429	78
386 Lillian Blvd	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+1%)	6mo	$705,000	$504	73
297 Clarice Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,298 (-7%)	5mo	$575,000	$443	72
429 Mollie Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-3%)	2mo	$615,000	$457	65
126 Schmidt Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	24mo	$512,500	$366	60
381 Grace St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-4%)	3mo	$640,000	$480	58
1568 Carl Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,367 (-2%)	13mo	$611,000	$447	56
1277 Hummel Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+12%)	4mo	$680,000	$437	52
107 Avenue E	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,271 (-9%)	11mo	$620,000	$488	46
407 Albert St	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+15%)	10mo	$610,000	$381	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-125,258
• Equity at exit: $81,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-100,902
• Equity at exit: $47,467

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11741

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$725 /mo · $8,706/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,852

Max offer price $400,662

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-529	-5% $-684	+0% $-840	+5% $-995	+10% $-1,150
Rent	-10% $-1,139	-5% $-989	+0% $-840	+5% $-690	+10% $-540
Rate	-1.0pp $-563	-0.5pp $-700	base $-840	+0.5pp $-982	+1.0pp $-1,127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Mill Rd Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$4,220	$5.01	0d	14	1.30mi
865 Broadway Ave Holbrook, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$3,590	$4.02	0d	34	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $549,000 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Holbrook! Charming, Bright & Well Maintained 3 Bedroom & 1.5 Bath Colonial on a Peaceful, Dead-End Street and Nicely Manicured Property. XL Kitchen w/ SS Appliances, Comfortable Living Room w/ Cozy & Efficient Pellet Stove. Large Dining Room w/ Exit to Backyard. Beautiful LVP Flooring Throughout the First Level. Full & Half Baths Attractively Updated. Well Sized Bedrooms w/ WIC Closets. (3) Ductless Units Include AC, Heat & Dehumidifier Options, Updated Windows. Pull-Down Stairs Attic, Maintenance-Free Vinyl Fencing All Around, 4 Zone IGS, Backyard Paver Patio. Don't Let This One Pass You By!

2. 2026-04-03
   listed $579,000 Active 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Holbrook! Charming, Bright & Well Maintained 3 Bedroom & 1.5 Bath Colonial on a Peaceful, Dead-End Street and Nicely Manicured Property. XL Kitchen w/ SS Appliances, Comfortable Living Room w/ Cozy & Efficient Pellet Stove. Large Dining Room w/ Exit to Backyard. Beautiful LVP Flooring Throughout the First Level. Full & Half Baths Attractively Updated. Well Sized Bedrooms w/ WIC Closets. (3) Ductless Units Include AC, Heat & Dehumidifier Options, Updated Windows. Pull-Down Stairs Attic, Maintenance-Free Vinyl Fencing All Around, 4 Zone IGS, Backyard Paver Patio. Don't Let This One Pass You By!

3. 2026-03-25
   historical $579,000 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Holbrook! Charming, Bright & Well Maintained 3 Bedroom & 1.5 Bath Colonial on a Peaceful, Dead-End Street and Nicely Manicured Property. XL Kitchen w/ SS Appliances, Comfortable Living Room w/ Cozy & Efficient Pellet Stove. Large Dining Room w/ Exit to Backyard. Beautiful LVP Flooring Throughout the First Level. Full & Half Baths Attractively Updated. Well Sized Bedrooms w/ WIC Closets. (3) Ductless Units Include AC, Heat & Dehumidifier Options, Updated Windows. Pull-Down Stairs Attic, Maintenance-Free Vinyl Fencing All Around, 4 Zone IGS, Backyard Paver Patio. Don't Let This One Pass You By!

4. 2008-01-24
   soldstatus $360,000
5. 2000-01-11
   soldstatus $150,000
6. 1987-02-20
   soldstatus $116,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,706 · $725/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,992 · $749/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$8,706
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,638
• − Management: −$3,638
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$19,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,667
• Household income: $144,346
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.71%
• Current HPI: 328.9231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+373.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Coming Soon $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,706 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.