29706 Wichita Fls · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$264,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Land · 158 Days on market

Built 2025 0.43 ac lot $147/sqft · 32% above area Est $201k · 32% over ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME to your brand new 4 bedrooms, 2 baths manufactured home located on a coversized lot, and NO HOA! This manufactured double wide home is the perfect split floorplan! As you drive up, you will notice a spacious lot with lots of privacy and located across the street from the park. This property sits on almost 1/2 an acre with a large front porch. As you enter you are greeted with an open concept living space, which is perfect for any buyer! The Primary Suite is oversized with a walk-in closet in your en-suite bathroom with double sinks! Everything is brand new!!!The secondary bedrooms have generous closet space and are perfectly positioned on the opposite side of the home. Enjoy peaceful living with a low tax rate and NO MUD Tax! You are still minutes from shopping, dining and The Woodlands! Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• Coversized lot
• Large front porch

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• COVERSIZED LOT
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,543
• List price: $264,000
• Delta: 31.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $165,576
• Equity at exit: $237,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $452,874
• Equity at exit: $512,894

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $560/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $264,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.79mi
28618 Hidden Cove Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2430	$2,046	$0.84	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   WELCOME HOME to your brand new 4 bedrooms, 2 baths manufactured home located on a coversized lot, and NO HOA! This manufactured double wide home is the perfect split floorplan! As you drive up, you will notice a spacious lot with lots of privacy and located across the street from the park. This property sits on almost 1/2 an acre with a large front porch. As you enter you are greeted with an open concept living space, which is perfect for any buyer! The Primary Suite is oversized with a walk-in closet in your en-suite bathroom with double sinks! Everything is brand new!!!The secondary bedrooms have generous closet space and are perfectly positioned on the opposite side of the home. Enjoy peaceful living with a low tax rate and NO MUD Tax! You are still minutes from shopping, dining and The Woodlands! Schedule your tour today!

2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   WELCOME HOME to your brand new 4 bedrooms, 2 baths manufactured home located on a coversized lot, and NO HOA! This manufactured double wide home is the perfect split floorplan! As you drive up, you will notice a spacious lot with lots of privacy and located across the street from the park. This property sits on almost 1/2 an acre with a large front porch. As you enter you are greeted with an open concept living space, which is perfect for any buyer! The Primary Suite is oversized with a walk-in closet in your en-suite bathroom with double sinks! Everything is brand new!!!The secondary bedrooms have generous closet space and are perfectly positioned on the opposite side of the home. Enjoy peaceful living with a low tax rate and NO MUD Tax! You are still minutes from shopping, dining and The Woodlands! Schedule your tour today!

3. 2025-12-06
   listed $264,000 Active 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   WELCOME HOME to your brand new 4 bedrooms, 2 baths manufactured home located on a coversized lot, and NO HOA! This manufactured double wide home is the perfect split floorplan! As you drive up, you will notice a spacious lot with lots of privacy and located across the street from the park. This property sits on almost 1/2 an acre with a large front porch. As you enter you are greeted with an open concept living space, which is perfect for any buyer! The Primary Suite is oversized with a walk-in closet in your en-suite bathroom with double sinks! Everything is brand new!!!The secondary bedrooms have generous closet space and are perfectly positioned on the opposite side of the home. Enjoy peaceful living with a low tax rate and NO MUD Tax! You are still minutes from shopping, dining and The Woodlands! Schedule your tour today!

4. 2025-11-30
   historical
5. 2025-07-19
   listed $289,000 Active
6. 2025-07-19
   historical
7. 2025-06-11
   price $293,000
8. 2025-05-02
   price $295,000
9. 2025-03-17
   listed $320,000 Active
10. 1991-09-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $560 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,831 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,272/yr (+$356/mo · 763.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$560
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable income: $1,034
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$248
• After-tax cash flow: $5,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $264,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $293,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 1991-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records