8 Grant St · Middletown, NY 10940

$210,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,890 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1890 4,400 sqft lot $111/sqft · 59% below area Est $357k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's the opportunity investors have been waiting for. This two-story colonial offers the right buyer a full-renovation canvas with real upside. Generous room sizes, hardwood floors on the upper level, a covered front porch, and an oversized barn/garage outbuilding in the rear — features that support strong ARV whether you're flipping or holding for rental income. The home needs a complete renovation and is priced accordingly. No repairs — sold strictly as-is. ***AGENTS – MUST see confidential remarks and all MLS listing attachments for additional instructions***

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Two story colonial
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• TWO STORY COLONIAL
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $210k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.73%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,759
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -41.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7-9 Wilbur Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,922 (+2%)	8mo	$300,000	$156	67
15 Phillips St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+1%)	3mo	$510,000	$268	67
29 Beacon St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,886 (-0%)	2mo	$407,500	$216	65
28 Spring St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (-10%)	2mo	$347,475	$205	64
30 Wilson St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,823 (-4%)	8mo	$489,000	$268	63
21 Ridge St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,998 (+6%)	3mo	$315,000	$158	62
10 Myrtle Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-15%)	5mo	$315,000	$196	60
11 Dolson	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,795 (-5%)	4mo	$440,000	$245	58
42 Genung St	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,728 (-9%)	2mo	$425,000	$246	53
38 Prospect St	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,790 (-5%)	5mo	$365,700	$204	52
47 Prince St	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,620 (-14%)	6mo	$405,000	$250	42
100 Excelsior Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,643 (-13%)	6mo	$401,000	$244	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,257
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $111,303
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,751/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $536	+0% $477	+5% $417	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $374	+0% $477	+5% $580	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $530	base $477	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Roberts St Unit 2-A Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	2132	$2,000	$0.94	24d	1	0.17mi
26 Washington St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	2274	$2,100	$0.92	44d	1	0.24mi
90 Washington St Unit 92 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	24d	1	0.32mi
7 Mulberry St Middletown, NY	4.0	1.5	1696	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	0.38mi
132 Prospect Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1240	$2,300	$1.85	44d	1	0.47mi
26 Mill St Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	24d	1	0.51mi
26 Mill St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	44d	1	0.51mi
14 Smith St Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1852	$3,600	$1.94	15d	1	0.52mi
105 Woodlake Dr Middletown, NY	2.0	2.5	2161	$3,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.63mi
52 Horton Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	2.5	2340	$3,000	$1.28	44d	1	0.66mi
169 Excelsior Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1450	$2,800	$1.93	15d	1	0.70mi
30 Knapp Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1532	$1,800	$1.17	44d	1	0.75mi
39 Crescent Pl Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1278	$2,500	$1.96	24d	1	0.77mi
184 Highland Ave Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	24d	1	0.94mi
186 Highland Ave Unit 1 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,800	$1.30	44d	1	0.95mi
225 Monhagen Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1466	$2,700	$1.84	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $210,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-19
    status Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Here's the opportunity investors have been waiting for. This two-story colonial offers the right buyer a full-renovation canvas with real upside. Generous room sizes, hardwood floors on the upper level, a covered front porch, and an oversized barn/garage outbuilding in the rear — features that support strong ARV whether you're flipping or holding for rental income. The home needs a complete renovation and is priced accordingly. No repairs — sold strictly as-is. ***AGENTS – MUST see confidential remarks and all MLS listing attachments for additional instructions***

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $210,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Here's the opportunity investors have been waiting for. This two-story colonial offers the right buyer a full-renovation canvas with real upside. Generous room sizes, hardwood floors on the upper level, a covered front porch, and an oversized barn/garage outbuilding in the rear — features that support strong ARV whether you're flipping or holding for rental income. The home needs a complete renovation and is priced accordingly. No repairs — sold strictly as-is. ***AGENTS – MUST see confidential remarks and all MLS listing attachments for additional instructions***

19. 2008-03-05
    soldstatus $126,650
20. 2006-01-24
    soldstatus $60,000
21. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $60,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Priced to sell, excellent investment opportunity just needs a little cosmetic TLC. Roof, hot water heater and furnace all replaced within the last 5 yrs. 2nd Floor bathroom recently renovated.

22. 2005-10-31
    price $99,900 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Priced to sell, excellent investment opportunity just needs a little cosmetic TLC. Roof, hot water heater and furnace all replaced within the last 5 yrs. 2nd Floor bathroom recently renovated.

23. 2005-10-31
    historical 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Priced to sell, excellent investment opportunity just needs a little cosmetic TLC. Roof, hot water heater and furnace all replaced within the last 5 yrs. 2nd Floor bathroom recently renovated.

24. 2004-10-19
    listed $60,000 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Priced to sell, excellent investment opportunity just needs a little cosmetic TLC. Roof, hot water heater and furnace all replaced within the last 5 yrs. 2nd Floor bathroom recently renovated.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,751 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,751 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,751
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $2,631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $5,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $126,650 Public Records
• 2006-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 HGMLS
• 2005-10-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-10-31 Price Changed $99,900 HGMLS
• 2004-10-19 Listed $60,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,751 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.