18222 Capital Ct · Lake Land'Or, VA 22546

$334,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2023 1,600 sqft lot Est $374k · 11% under $103/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Why wait for new construction when you can move right into this nearly new 2023 townhome in the sought-after Pendleton community? Offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a versatile floor plan, this home combines modern finishes, functional living spaces, and low-maintenance convenience. The open-concept floor plan is filled with natural light and designed for today's lifestyle. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and family rooms, creating the perfect space for entertaining guests or enjoying everyday living. Step outside onto the deck, ideal for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or relaxing at the end of the day. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite features a private bath, while two a

Key facts

• Deck
• $103 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $308 quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with garage door opener; Driveway parking; One garage/parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Estimated year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Disposal; Dishwasher; Icemaker; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main/upper level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Attic; Recessed lighting; Pantry; Kitchen island; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Soaking tub; Tub with shower; Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elementary (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B-, #576 of 1,108 statewide, top 52%, 890 students, 75% FRL); Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $258,879 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7222 Senate Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,800 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$186	93
18435 Congressional Cir	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,790 (-1%)	1mo	$345,000	$193	81
18323 Congressional Cir	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,838 (+2%)	6mo	$325,000	$177	78
18279 Democracy Ave	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,820 (+1%)	9mo	$325,000	$179	76
18315 Congressional Cir	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,882 (+5%)	4mo	$305,000	$162	76
7226 Potomac Ter	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,564 (-13%)	1mo	$347,000	$222	74
7195 Potomac Ter	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,560 (-13%)	10mo	$340,000	$218	68
18220 Capital Ct	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,564 (-13%)	12mo	$325,000	$208	68
7227 Potomac Ter	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,564 (-13%)	12mo	$335,000	$214	64
7205 Senate Way	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,564 (-13%)	14mo	$325,000	$208	64
7208 Senate Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,564 (-13%)	14mo	$341,500	$218	63
18329 Democracy Ave	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,036 (+13%)	0mo	$348,000	$171	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-60,559
• Equity at exit: $49,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-60,999
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,719/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $317,781

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $-3	+0% $-97	+5% $-192	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-200	+0% $-97	+5% $5	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $-12	base $-97	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7236 Potomac Ter Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,500	$1.49	22d	1	0.06mi
7120 Iron Gall Ln Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,495	$1.47	45d	1	0.13mi
18393 Signature Way Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,407	$1.76	26d	1	0.23mi
18339 Democracy Ave Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,237	$1.21	0d	1	0.32mi
18347 Centennial Cir Ruther Glen, VA	4.0	3.5	2250	$1,090	$0.48	45d	1	0.34mi
18353 Centennial Cir Ruther Glen, VA	4.0	3.5	2448	$2,650	$1.08	45d	1	0.34mi
7092 Durrette Rd Ruther Glen, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1500	$2,260	$1.51	0d	1	0.62mi
7124 Azalea Dr Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $334,999 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,999 Coming Soon 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,999 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,999 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,999 Coming Soon 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 473-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $334,999 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,028/yr (+$86/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$1,719
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,485
• − Management: −$2,485
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$7,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,691
• After-tax cash flow: $521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-60.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $334,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+92.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,719 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.