2126 Chestnut Ave · Newport News, VA 23607

$95,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1966 2,613 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Sold

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees (N/A)

Exterior

• Parking: Street parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached ranch-style home; Single-story
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.06 acres with 25' front and 106.25' depth (106.25 x 25)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Other heating system
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; First-floor bedroom with a full bathroom; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Newsome Park Elementary (math 8% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,104 of 1,108 statewide, top 100%, 477 students, 91% FRL); Huntington Middle (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #341 of 342 statewide, top 100%, 411 students, 87% FRL); Heritage High (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C, #262 of 319 statewide, top 82%, 1,111 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Newport News City Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,591/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2008% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $798 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $95k implies a 631% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.62%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,666
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1234 22nd St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-8%)	1mo	$259,000	$235	81
2106 Chestnut Ave	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,244 (+5%)	2mo	$295,000	$237	77
960 15th St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,195 (+0%)	0mo	$137,000	$115	76
942 20th St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$144	74
937 17th St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,245 (+5%)	0mo	$252,500	$203	70
56 Poplar Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,192 (+0%)	2mo	$210,000	$176	64
2128 Roanoke Ave	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$285,000	$210	62
988 15th St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,061 (-11%)	2mo	$126,050	$119	52
3015 Wickham Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+9%)	1mo	$252,000	$194	52
62 Buxton Ave	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,308 (+10%)	0mo	$289,000	$221	50
848 31st St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,045 (-12%)	1mo	$175,000	$167	47
843 29th St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,349 (+14%)	1mo	$255,000	$189	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.84% appreciation · 2.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $30,998
• Equity at exit: $23,662

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $83,366
• Equity at exit: $25,474

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23607

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,551/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $617	+0% $590	+5% $563	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $464	-5% $527	+0% $590	+5% $653	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $614	base $590	+0.5pp $565	+1.0pp $540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1216 21st St Newport News, VA	3.0	3.5	1446	$1,700	$1.18	25d	1	0.10mi
2314 Chestnut Ave Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$12,900	$14.33	3d	1	0.12mi
1240 24th St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	752	$995	$1.32	25d	1	0.16mi
1239 24th St Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	880	$1,495	$1.70	45d	1	0.18mi
1035 23rd St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	0.24mi
1348 28th St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	997	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	0.42mi
1348 28th St Unit NA Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	997	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	0.42mi
932 16th St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	754	$1,500	$1.99	45d	1	0.46mi
1152 Orcutt Ave Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	947	$1,375	$1.45	5d	1	0.48mi
1227 31st St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,495	$1.66	3d	1	0.49mi
829 22nd St Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1020	$1,650	$1.62	45d	1	0.50mi
41 Ash Ave Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	25d	1	0.55mi
1124 33rd St Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1386	$1,600	$1.15	25d	1	0.57mi
35 Cedar Ave Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1138	$1,595	$1.40	45d	1	0.60mi
740 21st St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,000	$1.79	45d	1	0.65mi
321 Pine Ave Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1349	$1,990	$1.48	25d	1	0.75mi
233 Pine Ave Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1213	$2,100	$1.73	25d	1	0.75mi
1010 36th St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	775	$1,095	$1.41	25d	1	0.76mi
749 31st St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	45d	1	0.79mi
1032 37th St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,450	$1.22	45d	1	0.79mi
935 37th St Unit 15 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	9d	1	0.88mi
935 37th St Unit 16 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	45d	1	0.88mi
935 37th St Unit 4 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	25d	1	0.88mi
3206 Madison Ave Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	12d	1	0.91mi
709 33rd St Unit 1 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	878	$1,400	$1.59	19d	1	0.92mi
913 41st St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.05mi
915 41st St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.05mi
4111 Orcutt Ave Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	4d	1	1.05mi
4104 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.06mi
4104 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	45d	1	1.06mi
4101 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.07mi
4107 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	45d	1	1.07mi
327 Locust Ave Hampton, VA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.08mi
4218 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	4d	1	1.09mi
4119 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.09mi
4200 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$795	$0.89	25d	1	1.09mi
4224 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.10mi
841 41st St Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	12d	1	1.10mi
4226 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,045	$1.41	25d	1	1.10mi
4135 Newsome Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	4d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $95,000 Under Contract 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   remarks 8-char remark
3. 2026-06-10
   listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,551
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $5,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,096
• Household income: $42,334
• Rent vs Own: 69.5% rent · 30.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2008.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.84%
• Current HPI: 312.4039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.91%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+631.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $95,000 REINMLS
• 1988-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $12,995 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,551 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.