179 Mill St · Willis, TX 77378

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1979 5,793 sqft lot Est $141k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime corner location in the heart of Willis, this property includes Tracts 1 & 3 (see survey) and is zoned Commercial by the City of Willis—offering excellent visibility and endless potential for future use. The existing home is in need of a complete renovation, providing a perfect opportunity for an investor, business owner, or developer to design a space tailored to their specific needs. Whether you envision an office, retail space, or mixed-use conversion, this location offers incredible versatility and access to growing traffic corridors. This property is zoned Commercial by the City of Willis. Buyers are encouraged to verify permitted uses and restrictions directly with the City of Willis. All measurements and information should be independently verified by the buyer. Seller is Ohm Springs Inc. Please contact the listing agent to confirm details prior to submitting any offers.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Pex plumbing
• Replaced hvac system

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW SHINGLES
• HARDIPLANK SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• REPLACED HVAC SYSTEM
• PEX PLUMBING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1979; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Free‑standing range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Second bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10); Two bedrooms possible
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,400 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,514
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -28.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
179 Mill St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,014 (0%)	7mo	$114,400	$113	94
110 Laurie Lane Ln	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,016 (+0%)	1mo	$179,900	$177	81
108 Church St	0.26mi	2/1.0	988 (-3%)	14mo	$159,900	$162	72
94 S Shirley Ln	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,061 (+5%)	8mo	$145,000	$137	67
107 S Cochran St	0.48mi	2/1.0	992 (-2%)	10mo	$139,000	$140	66
410 E Powell St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	12mo	$125,000	$120	66
10 E Watson St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	880 (-13%)	6mo	$99,900	$114	55
204 N Shirley Ln	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (+8%)	10mo	$145,000	$133	52
216 Laurie Ln	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (+14%)	11mo	$185,000	$160	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-43,714
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-60,692
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,058/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,643

Max offer price $175,409

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-77	+0% $-134	+5% $-190	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-192	+0% $-134	+5% $-75	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-33	-0.5pp $-83	base $-134	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 E Watson St Willis, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,063	$1.52	45d	1	0.27mi
208 Cemetary Ln Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	45d	1	0.28mi
104 Runners ST Unit B Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,700	$1.40	6d	1	0.33mi
101 Will St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,345	$1.40	12d	1	0.42mi
104 Turner Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	45d	1	0.68mi
100 Lamar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	26d	1	0.75mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,058 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,584/yr (+$132/mo · 76.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,058
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+74.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $114,400 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,058 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.