6221 39th St · Lemon Hill, CA 95824

$2,000,000

36 bd · 27.0 ba · 15,807 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1963 0.65 ac lot $127/sqft · 39% below area Est $3280k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 18 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

18 UNITS ALL 2 BEDROOMS 1 & 1/2 BATHS RENT FROM $ 750 TO $775 EACH UNIT.PLEASE DO NOT ASK THE TENANTS OFFER SUBJECT INSPECTION THANK YOU.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 18 parking spots
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 18 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($142k/yr) — positive. Per door: $659/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $2.00M).
• Recommended offer: $1.88M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.8% in Lemon Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,302 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Fern Bacon Middle (671 students, 92% FRL); C. K. Mcclatchy High (2,427 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $30,462/mo this rent would consume 647% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1671% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $560k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.88M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $660k; list at $2.00M implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,880,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.44%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,280,115
• List price: $2,000,000
• Delta: -39.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $540,462
• Equity at exit: $298,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $1,922,334
• Equity at exit: $172,923

Cash invested: $560,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95824

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 98.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,488
• Tax from tax record: −$873 /mo · $10,479/yr
• Insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,397
• Net cashflow: $11,870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,436

Max offer price $2,000,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13,002	-5% $12,436	+0% $11,870	+5% $11,304	+10% $10,738
Rent	-10% $9,464	-5% $10,667	+0% $11,870	+5% $13,073	+10% $14,277
Rate	-1.0pp $12,877	-0.5pp $12,379	base $11,870	+0.5pp $11,352	+1.0pp $10,825

18-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 18× units	2.0	1.5	$30,456
Total (18 units)			$30,462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $500,000
• Closing costs: $60,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $2,000,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,300,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,300,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,300,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $2,300,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,300,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,300,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,300,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,300,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2010-08-09
    soldstatus $660,000
17. 2009-12-02
    soldstatus $632,000
18. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $1,650,000
19. 2005-06-23
    soldstatus $1,650,000 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    18 UNITS ALL 2 BEDROOMS 1 & 1/2 BATHS RENT FROM $ 750 TO $775 EACH UNIT.PLEASE DO NOT ASK THE TENANTS OFFER SUBJECT INSPECTION THANK YOU.

20. 2005-02-22
    historical 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    18 UNITS ALL 2 BEDROOMS 1 & 1/2 BATHS RENT FROM $ 750 TO $775 EACH UNIT.PLEASE DO NOT ASK THE TENANTS OFFER SUBJECT INSPECTION THANK YOU.

21. 2005-02-14
    listed $1,650,000 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    18 UNITS ALL 2 BEDROOMS 1 & 1/2 BATHS RENT FROM $ 750 TO $775 EACH UNIT.PLEASE DO NOT ASK THE TENANTS OFFER SUBJECT INSPECTION THANK YOU.

22. 2004-05-25
    soldstatus $1,250,000
23. 2000-04-07
    soldstatus $337,000
24. 1986-01-08
    soldstatus $430,000
25. 1978-12-01
    soldstatus $134,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,479 · $873/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,200 · $1,267/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,721/yr (+$393/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $365,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$112,031
• − Property taxes: −$10,479
• − Insurance: −$10,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$29,244
• − Management: −$29,244
• − Depreciation: −$58,182
• Taxable income: $116,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27,928
• After-tax cash flow: $114,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lemon Hill

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1302
• US rank: #26608

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemon Hill, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,083
• Household income: $56,477
• Rent vs Own: 55.5% rent · 44.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1671.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% Asian 29% White 13% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -341.41%
• Current HPI: 409.6203
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.44%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+392.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2010-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $660,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $632,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,650,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-23 Sold (MLS) $1,650,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-02-22 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-02-14 Listed $1,650,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2004-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $1,250,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $337,000 Public Records
• 1986-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $430,000 Public Records
• 1978-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,479 · -48.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.