2531 Paloverde Canyon Ct · Houston, TX 77532

$251,640

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Turn the kids loose in the Olympic's second-story loft space while hosting downstairs in the open concept living area. White cabinets with light quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Sundance Cove will have the kids enjoying the future trails, resort-style pool and recreation center. When not at home, indulge in the lake lifestyle with easy access to all the fun at nearby Lake Houston. You won’t need to venture far to major employment centers, shopping, dining, and entertainment. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so

Key facts

• Resort style pool
• Recreation center
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• SECOND STORY LOFT SPACE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• RECREATION CENTER
• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE HOUSTON

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Meritage Homes
• HOA & community: Association: Community Solutions; Annual association fee of $750; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-family home; Living area approximately 1,986; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, stone, cement siding and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Back yard fence; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Energy Star qualified appliances; Kitchen island; Granite and quartz countertops; Pantry / Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13x12); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (each 12x12); Total of 5 rooms including game room
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bathroom with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Double vanity; Bath in primary bedroom; Tub/shower; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Granite counters; Quartz counters; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $251,640 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,690.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($709/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,498 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,690
• List price: $251,640
• Delta: 2.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2531 Paloverde Canyon Ct	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,986 (0%)	0mo	$251,640	$127	100
2546 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,986 (0%)	2mo	$280,790	$141	97
2623 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,986 (0%)	6mo	$275,640	$139	93
2518 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,986 (0%)	6mo	$299,040	$151	93
2610 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,986 (0%)	5mo	$278,640	$140	92
2510 Camino Canyon Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,067 (+4%)	6mo	$286,170	$138	71
18702 Durango Plains Trl	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,136 (+8%)	3mo	$309,990	$145	70
18602 Redford Springs Ct	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,073 (+4%)	2mo	$289,000	$139	67
2419 Covered Wagon Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,180 (+10%)	6mo	$289,995	$133	66
2503 Elliot Canyon Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,895 (-5%)	4mo	$284,990	$150	66
2515 Serrano Plains Trl	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,180 (+10%)	4mo	$294,090	$135	64
18834 Spokane Fls	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-15%)	4mo	$268,640	$159	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,274
• Equity at exit: $36,484

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-42,820
• Equity at exit: $21,156

Cash invested: $68,513 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,670/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $244,690

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $144	+0% $59	+5% $-26	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-32	+0% $59	+5% $150	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $121	base $59	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,172
• Closing costs: $7,341
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	26d	1	0.58mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	14d	1	0.91mi
3310 Indian Mound Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,795	$0.99	0d	1	1.07mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	14d	1	1.11mi
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	26d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $251,640 890-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   price $250,640 233-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   price $250,640 890-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   price $247,640 233-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   price $247,640 890-char remark
6. 2026-04-23
   price $257,640 233-char remark
7. 2026-04-22
   price $257,640 890-char remark
8. 2026-04-22
   price $287,640 233-char remark
9. 2026-04-20
   listed $287,640 Active 890-char remark
10. 2026-04-03
    price $302,640 233-char remark
11. 2026-04-03
    status Active 233-char remark
12. 2025-10-24
    historical 233-char remark
13. 2025-10-22
    listed $298,640 Active 233-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,706
• − Property taxes: −$3,670
• − Insurance: −$1,223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,118
• Taxable loss: −$3,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new, energy-efficient home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on its curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $251,640 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $250,640 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $247,640 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $257,640 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $287,640 HARMLS