Prosperity Plan · Aurora, IL 60503

$461,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $461,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $608,890.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $462k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (36.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (44.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.5% in Aurora — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolfs Crossing Elem School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 2,056 statewide, top 18%, 485 students, 0% FRL); Bednarcik Junior High School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #154 of 665 statewide, top 24%, 571 students, 0% FRL); Oswego East High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #104 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 2,836 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,273 (44.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.37%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 19.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $608,890
• List price: $461,990
• Delta: -24.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3262 Oak Creek Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (0%)	0mo	$475,000	$289	66
3150 Adelwood Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	2mo	$680,955	$370	57
3276 Lincoln Prairie Blvd	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,743 (+6%)	16mo	$522,851	$300	44
3268 Oak Creek Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	8mo	$556,461	$302	43
3293 Oak Creek Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	12mo	$544,585	$296	35
3288 Oak Creek Ln	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	15mo	$535,792	$291	34
3282 Oak Creek Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	18mo	$539,470	$293	32
3201 Sweetgrass Cir	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,502 (-9%)	23mo	$418,494	$279	32
3158 Lincoln Prairie Blvd	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	22mo	$540,000	$293	30
3295 Oak Creek Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,892 (+15%)	13mo	$548,941	$290	29
3274 Lincoln Prairie Blvd	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,841 (+12%)	23mo	$563,483	$306	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $192,598
• Equity at exit: $548,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $676,600
• Equity at exit: $1,182,939

Cash invested: $170,489 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60503

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,193
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$761 /mo · $9,133/yr
• Insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-2,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,326

Max offer price $292,957

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,763	-5% $-1,973	+0% $-2,183	+5% $-2,394	+10% $-2,604
Rent	-10% $-2,386	-5% $-2,285	+0% $-2,183	+5% $-2,082	+10% $-1,981
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,877	-0.5pp $-2,028	base $-2,183	+0.5pp $-2,341	+1.0pp $-2,502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $152,222
• Closing costs: $18,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
246 Cooney Way Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,800	$1.58	45d	1	0.61mi
2000 Emblem Cir Oswego, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,362	$2.45	0d	29	0.65mi
464 Valentine Way Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	2071	$2,800	$1.35	1d	1	0.68mi
2503 Dickens Dr #2503 Aurora, IL	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,050	$1.78	45d	1	0.69mi
2454 Frost Dr Unit 2454 Aurora, IL	2.0	2.5	1230	$2,300	$1.87	45d	1	0.75mi
2554 Dickens Dr Aurora, IL	2.0	2.5	1116	$2,050	$1.84	26d	1	0.82mi
2552 Dickens Dr Unit 2552 Aurora, IL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	45d	1	0.82mi
2565 Dickens Ct Aurora, IL	2.0	2.5	1116	$2,300	$2.06	45d	1	0.84mi
260 Devoe Dr Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,400	$1.41	14d	1	0.85mi
2873 Carlsbad Cir Aurora, IL	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,990	$1.84	45d	1	0.92mi
421 Hathaway Ln Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	2074	$3,850	$1.86	45d	1	0.95mi
337 Devoe Dr #337 Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	26d	1	1.04mi
347 Devoe Dr Oswego, IL	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,595	$1.71	14d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $461,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $461,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $461,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $461,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $461,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $461,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $461,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $461,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $461,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $461,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $460,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $460,990 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $460,990 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $460,990 Active 935 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    price $460,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $457,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

17. 2025-11-02
    price $455,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

18. 2025-08-30
    price $454,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

19. 2025-03-08
    price $450,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

20. 2025-01-04
    price $449,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

21. 2024-01-04
    price $448,990 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

22. 2023-11-08
    listed $447,990 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    You'll love the layout of your new home when you choose the Prosperity. Delight in an open kitchen with large walk-in pantry and island as well as a defined space for a café. Retreat to the private Owner's Suite with dual vanities and large walk-in closet. Add a sunroom off the café to connect to the covered patio for additional entertaining space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,107
• − Property taxes: −$9,133
• − Insurance: −$3,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
• − Management: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$17,713
• Taxable loss: −$38,166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,160
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: CUSD 308
• NCES district ID: 1730270
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $89,945
• Composite: 31.25/100
• National rank: #6028
• State rank: #179 of 620 in IL

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #4272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, IL
• County: Will County · 412,448 people
• City population: 186,692
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 16,789
• Household income: $136,726
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 19.0

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 19% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scandinavian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.31%
• Current HPI: 232.382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $460,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $457,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $455,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $454,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $450,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $449,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $448,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $447,990 Zillow