5 Arthur St · Flanders, NY 11901

$929,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1991 0.40 ac lot $606/sqft · 32% above area Est $704k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5 Arthur Street in Flanders, New York — a beautifully updated mother-daughter home designed for comfortable multi-generational living. This move-in ready property features a legal accessory apartment on the walk-in level, complete with a private one-bedroom layout that includes a living room, full kitchen, and bathroom. It’s ideal for extended guests, or potential rental income. The owner’s residence is a spacious duplex offering three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The main living area is warm and inviting, highlighted by a charming wood-burning stove that creates the perfect gathering space. The living room also opens to a large deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow that is perfect for entertaining and enjoying gatherings with friends. The home has been completely updated with modern kitchens and bathrooms, blending contemporary style with everyday functionality. Additional features include a two-car garage, providing convenient parking and extra storage space. Thoughtfully designed for flexibility and comfort, this property offers the perfect opportunity for multi-generational living while maintaining privacy for everyone. Located in Flanders, close to local amenities, beaches, and the best of the East End, 5 Arthur Street offers both convenience and lifestyle in a beautifully updated home.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Modern kitchens
• Modern bathrooms

Tags

• LEGAL ACCESSORY APARTMENT
• PRIVATE ONE BEDROOM LAYOUT
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• LARGE DECK
• MODERN KITCHENS
• MODERN BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $929k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($156k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $929k).
• Recommended offer: $873k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $260k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($873k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $929k implies a 446% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $873,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.23%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $703,954
• List price: $929,000
• Delta: 31.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $677,401
• Equity at exit: $138,517

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $1,655,916
• Equity at exit: $80,323

Cash invested: $260,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,872
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,855/yr
• Insurance: −$387
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,998
• Net cashflow: $13,000

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,345

Max offer price $929,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13,526	-5% $13,263	+0% $13,000	+5% $12,737	+10% $12,474
Rent	-10% $11,120	-5% $12,060	+0% $13,000	+5% $13,940	+10% $14,880
Rate	-1.0pp $13,468	-0.5pp $13,236	base $13,000	+0.5pp $12,759	+1.0pp $12,514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $232,250
• Closing costs: $27,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Maple Ave S Riverhead, NY	3.0	3.0	1710	$11,000	$6.43	26d	1	0.35mi
588 Pleasure Dr Riverhead, NY	4.0	4.0	2225	$60,000	$26.97	26d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $929,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $929,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $929,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $929,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $929,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $929,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-04-13
   price $929,000 1361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1361 chars)

   Welcome to 5 Arthur Street in Flanders, New York — a beautifully updated mother-daughter home designed for comfortable multi-generational living. This move-in ready property features a legal accessory apartment on the walk-in level, complete with a private one-bedroom layout that includes a living room, full kitchen, and bathroom. It’s ideal for extended guests, or potential rental income. The owner’s residence is a spacious duplex offering three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The main living area is warm and inviting, highlighted by a charming wood-burning stove that creates the perfect gathering space. The living room also opens to a large deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow that is perfect for entertaining and enjoying gatherings with friends. The home has been completely updated with modern kitchens and bathrooms, blending contemporary style with everyday functionality. Additional features include a two-car garage, providing convenient parking and extra storage space. Thoughtfully designed for flexibility and comfort, this property offers the perfect opportunity for multi-generational living while maintaining privacy for everyone. Located in Flanders, close to local amenities, beaches, and the best of the East End, 5 Arthur Street offers both convenience and lifestyle in a beautifully updated home.

8. 2026-03-06
   listed $979,000 Active 1361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1361 chars)

   Welcome to 5 Arthur Street in Flanders, New York — a beautifully updated mother-daughter home designed for comfortable multi-generational living. This move-in ready property features a legal accessory apartment on the walk-in level, complete with a private one-bedroom layout that includes a living room, full kitchen, and bathroom. It’s ideal for extended guests, or potential rental income. The owner’s residence is a spacious duplex offering three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. The main living area is warm and inviting, highlighted by a charming wood-burning stove that creates the perfect gathering space. The living room also opens to a large deck, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor flow that is perfect for entertaining and enjoying gatherings with friends. The home has been completely updated with modern kitchens and bathrooms, blending contemporary style with everyday functionality. Additional features include a two-car garage, providing convenient parking and extra storage space. Thoughtfully designed for flexibility and comfort, this property offers the perfect opportunity for multi-generational living while maintaining privacy for everyone. Located in Flanders, close to local amenities, beaches, and the best of the East End, 5 Arthur Street offers both convenience and lifestyle in a beautifully updated home.

9. 2000-06-14
   soldstatus $170,000
10. 1987-04-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,855 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,777 · $898/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,923/yr (+$410/mo · 84.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $285,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,038
• − Property taxes: −$5,855
• − Insurance: −$5,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,848
• − Management: −$22,848
• − Depreciation: −$27,025
• Taxable income: $149,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35,922
• After-tax cash flow: $120,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flanders

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #22674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flanders, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+9190.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $929,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $979,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,855 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.