8301 25th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$218,960

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered entry
• Parking

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL EXTERIOR
• COVERED ENTRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area: 1316; Address: 8301 25th St, Lubbock TX 79407; Listing status: Active; List price: 218960; Last modified: 2026-05-21

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec home (Plan: Abby); Single-family property

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, disposal, microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-742/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,718 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,774
• Equity at exit: $32,648

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-64,752
• Equity at exit: $18,932

Cash invested: $61,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,284/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $210,016

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $14	+0% $-62	+5% $-137	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-134	+0% $-62	+5% $11	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-6	base $-62	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,740
• Closing costs: $6,569
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2617 Garland Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	23d	1	0.19mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	23d	1	0.26mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	15d	1	0.26mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	45d	1	0.27mi
2515 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	23d	1	0.68mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	23d	1	0.68mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	0.68mi
2505 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	23d	1	0.68mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	15d	1	0.70mi
2163 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,399	$1.50	23d	1	0.70mi
2161 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,649	$1.06	23d	1	0.71mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	23d	1	0.73mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.74mi
2150 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	23d	1	0.75mi
2166 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	15d	1	0.76mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.76mi
2139 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,349	$0.90	45d	1	0.77mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	0.77mi
2146 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,299	$1.48	45d	1	0.78mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.78mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	0.80mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	23d	1	0.80mi
2140 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,999	$1.38	45d	1	0.81mi
2156 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	23d	1	0.81mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	0.82mi
2154 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	45d	1	0.82mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	23d	1	0.83mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	23d	1	0.84mi
2130 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	23d	1	0.84mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	23d	1	0.84mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.85mi
2133 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,999	$1.29	23d	1	0.85mi
2144 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	15d	1	0.86mi
2127 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,699	$1.10	15d	1	0.86mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	23d	1	0.87mi
2140 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,749	$1.13	45d	1	0.87mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	0.88mi
2134 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,699	$1.09	45d	1	0.89mi
2132 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	0.89mi
2130 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,575	$1.01	45d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $218,960 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,960 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,960 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,960 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,960 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,960 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $218,960 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,960 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,960 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $218,960 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $218,960 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $218,960 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $218,960 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $218,960 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,960 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $218,960 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $218,960 Active 400-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,265
• − Property taxes: −$3,284
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$6,370
• Taxable loss: −$4,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good roof, flooring, and systems. It needs minor cosmetic updates such as painting and landscaping to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters.
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B