415 E Commercial Ave · La Feria, TX 78559

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1970 9,000 sqft lot $80/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house needs repairs. Value is on the land. The House sits on a very large lot.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 9,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.4% in La Feria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#667 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• La Feria ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #630 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.89%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,752
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -51.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 7th St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (+5%)	16mo	$145,000	$171	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $4,897
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $24,367
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78559

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $711

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 6th St Unit A La Feria, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$1,000	$1.08	21d	1	0.56mi
405 Lion's Villa Ave Unit 15 La Feria, TX	2.0	1.5	992	$999	$1.01	14d	1	0.83mi
200 Cub Cir La Feria, TX	2.0	1.5	966	$1,024	$1.06	14d	1	0.84mi
300 Cub Cir Unit 2 La Feria, TX	2.0	1.5	966	$1,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 241 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 240 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 239 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 238 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 237 DOM
16. 2026-02-20
    status Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    This house needs repairs. Value is on the land. The House sits on a very large lot.

17. 2026-02-18
    status Pending 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    This house needs repairs. Value is on the land. The House sits on a very large lot.

18. 2026-01-30
    price $65,000 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    This house needs repairs. Value is on the land. The House sits on a very large lot.

19. 2025-09-22
    listed $80,000 Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    This house needs repairs. Value is on the land. The House sits on a very large lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$494
• After-tax cash flow: $2,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Feria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826040
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,306
• Composite: 25.41/100
• National rank: #7460
• State rank: #630 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Feria

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #12330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Feria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,752

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 91% Two or more races 35% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.21%
• Current HPI: 187.8512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $65,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $80,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,324 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.