11620 FM 1650 · Longview, TX 75645

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2006

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic 3 bedroom, 3.5 baths with a 2 car garage conveniently situated between Gilmer and Longview. This property is landscaped, surveyed and move in ready. With a centralized kitchen, each bedroom offers private entry and the 3rd bath serves as a mudroom as well as laundry connecting to the garage for easy access. Very well thought out floor plan, fresh paint inside and out, large storage area in the garage, 2 back patios with so much potential. .seriously, this house is a gem!

Key facts

• Built 2006
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.96%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $116,319
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $360,382
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $4,000/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,249

Max offer price $192,325

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-210	-5% $-283	+0% $-355	+5% $-427	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-426	+0% $-355	+5% $-284	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-226	-0.5pp $-290	base $-355	+0.5pp $-421	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12410 FM 1650 Gilmer, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $255,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $260,000 Active
19. 2025-05-07
    listed $275,000 Active
20. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus Closed 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Fantastic 3 bedroom, 3.5 baths with a 2 car garage conveniently situated between Gilmer and Longview. This property is landscaped, surveyed and move in ready. With a centralized kitchen, each bedroom offers private entry and the 3rd bath serves as a mudroom as well as laundry connecting to the garage for easy access. Very well thought out floor plan, fresh paint inside and out, large storage area in the garage, 2 back patios with so much potential. .seriously, this house is a gem!

21. 2023-04-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Fantastic 3 bedroom, 3.5 baths with a 2 car garage conveniently situated between Gilmer and Longview. This property is landscaped, surveyed and move in ready. With a centralized kitchen, each bedroom offers private entry and the 3rd bath serves as a mudroom as well as laundry connecting to the garage for easy access. Very well thought out floor plan, fresh paint inside and out, large storage area in the garage, 2 back patios with so much potential. .seriously, this house is a gem!

22. 2023-04-27
    status Pending 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Fantastic 3 bedroom, 3.5 baths with a 2 car garage conveniently situated between Gilmer and Longview. This property is landscaped, surveyed and move in ready. With a centralized kitchen, each bedroom offers private entry and the 3rd bath serves as a mudroom as well as laundry connecting to the garage for easy access. Very well thought out floor plan, fresh paint inside and out, large storage area in the garage, 2 back patios with so much potential. .seriously, this house is a gem!

23. 2023-03-08
    listed $255,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Fantastic 3 bedroom, 3.5 baths with a 2 car garage conveniently situated between Gilmer and Longview. This property is landscaped, surveyed and move in ready. With a centralized kitchen, each bedroom offers private entry and the 3rd bath serves as a mudroom as well as laundry connecting to the garage for easy access. Very well thought out floor plan, fresh paint inside and out, large storage area in the garage, 2 back patios with so much potential. .seriously, this house is a gem!

24. 2022-08-19
    listed $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,000 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,000
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$8,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Longview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #5287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 103,792
• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $260,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-05-07 Listed $275,000 LAAR
• 2023-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2023-04-27 Pending — LAAR
• 2023-03-08 Listed $255,000 LAAR
• 2022-08-19 Listed $255,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,000 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.