516 Polk Road 40 · Hatfield, AR 71945

$95,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,068 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1974 2.00 ac lot Est $65k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2-bedroom 1.5 bath home sits on approximately 2 acres. Inside, you’ll find a dedicated laundry room, and a formal dining area. The master bedroom offers two large closets. The kitchen was remodeled in 2006–2007 and features custom-built cabinets and a pantry. Additional cabinetry and two pantries were added in the dining room, and a linen closet was built in the hallway. The home has seen several improvements over the years. Flooring has been improved with plywood replacing the original particle board. The full bathroom and laundry room were both remodeled. Updates include, new plumbing with flex piping installed in 2016, electrical rewiring completed in 2009, and

Key facts

• Outdoor land
• Kitchen
• Laundry room

Tags

• KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• SCREENED PORCH
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• OUTDOOR LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. acreage: 2 acres; Approximate lot dimensions: approx 697 x 131; Square footage source: tax records
• Financial info: Financing options: conventional loan or cash

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads for 2 cars
• Utilities: Septic system; Private well; Electric - Cooperative; Propane/Butane gas; Insulated doors; Attic turbo vent; Extra insulation; Ridge vents/caps
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Mobile property type
• Construction: Wood exterior; Crawl space foundation; 3-tab shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level, cleared lot; Dirt and gravel road access; No area amenities

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Pantry
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; Gas space heater
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections; Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Sheetrock and paneling walls; Sheetrock ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer connections

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#334 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mena School District (rural): math 42% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #70 of 238 in AR (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $95k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,148
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 Polk Road 40	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,068 (0%)	1mo	$65,000	$61	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $17,408
• Equity at exit: $42,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $53,668
• Equity at exit: $65,831

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71945

• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-22
   price $95,000
3. 2026-02-16
   price $99,000
4. 2026-01-12
   listed $125,000 New Listing
5. 1998-11-24
   soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$911
• − Management: −$911
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$100
• After-tax cash flow: $1,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mena School District
• NCES district ID: 0509750
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,941
• Composite: 32.88/100
• National rank: #5607
• State rank: #70 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hatfield

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #21599

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,455

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,065 people
• By 2030: 18,369 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 17,156 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 16,177 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 14,642 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 13,020 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 1% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 13.8% · R 84.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.7pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+66.4 2012: R+56.9 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+227.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $99,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 1998-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records