2039 Greencourt Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1984 4,599 sqft lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $246k · 19% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and affordable 3-bedroom starter home with a downstairs primary bedroom, inviting family room, and breakfast area just off the kitchen. This cozy home also features a nice-sized backyard and a small workshop in the back, ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Seller is open to considering repair requests as part of the transaction.

Key facts

• Nice-sized backyard
• Family room
• Small workshop

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• BREAKFAST AREA
• NICE-SIZED BACKYARD
• SMALL WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $280 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,550 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,020
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -18.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2047 Greencrest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+6%)	20mo	$250,000	$217	71
1739 Grand Park Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+14%)	5mo	$244,500	$197	50
1926 Retriever Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+14%)	11mo	$255,000	$205	48
2647 Indian Trail Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	16mo	$199,000	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,711
• Equity at exit: $52,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,411
• Equity at exit: $59,055

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,675/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,974

Max offer price $171,550

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	0.84mi
3102 Texas Pkwy Missouri City, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,301	$1.45	1d	3	1.02mi
3302 Texas Pkwy Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,302	$1.63	1d	7	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Charming and affordable 3-bedroom starter home with a downstairs primary bedroom, inviting family room, and breakfast area just off the kitchen. This cozy home also features a nice-sized backyard and a small workshop in the back, ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Seller is open to considering repair requests as part of the transaction.

2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Charming and affordable 3-bedroom starter home with a downstairs primary bedroom, inviting family room, and breakfast area just off the kitchen. This cozy home also features a nice-sized backyard and a small workshop in the back, ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Seller is open to considering repair requests as part of the transaction.

3. 2026-03-16
   listed $199,999 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Charming and affordable 3-bedroom starter home with a downstairs primary bedroom, inviting family room, and breakfast area just off the kitchen. This cozy home also features a nice-sized backyard and a small workshop in the back, ideal for storage, hobbies, or projects. Seller is open to considering repair requests as part of the transaction.

4. 2025-04-01
   soldstatus
5. 2025-03-25
   soldstatus
6. 2025-03-25
   soldstatus
7. 2016-05-23
   soldstatus Sold
8. 2016-05-23
   soldstatus
9. 2016-05-16
   status Pending
10. 2016-05-11
    status Option Pending
11. 2016-05-08
    status Pending
12. 2016-05-02
    status Option Pending
13. 2016-03-15
    status Active
14. 2016-03-04
    status Option Pending
15. 2016-02-03
    listed $115,000 Active
16. 2016-01-15
    historical
17. 2015-08-26
    listed $105,000 Active
18. 2004-06-01
    historical
19. 2004-05-27
    listed $900
20. 2004-02-27
    soldstatus
21. 1996-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,675 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,675 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,675
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-03-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-02-03 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2016-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-26 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2004-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-05-27 Listed $900 HARMLS
• 2004-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,675 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.