Kemp Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$234,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily · 344 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Kemp-a single-story home offering three bedrooms and two full baths. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet and private bath. An open-concept kitchen flows into the café and gathering room, ideal for hosting or relaxing. With a 2-car garage, laundry room, and ample storage, the Kemp is designed for stylish, functional living.

Key facts

• Gathering room
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GATHERING ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $234,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,387.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,673 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,387
• List price: $234,490
• Delta: -12.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4060 Bermuda Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,276 (0%)	2mo	$226,090	$177	87
4113 Lazy Lily Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	0mo	$229,460	$173	83
4056 Bermuda Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	1mo	$234,060	$176	80
4032 Lily Glade Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	8mo	$244,075	$184	80
4130 Bermuda Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+4%)	2mo	$219,630	$165	78
308 Lazyglade Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-6%)	6mo	$224,190	$186	77
312 Pacific Waters	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	6mo	$244,999	$194	69
324 Pacific Waters	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	6mo	$190,999	$152	69
236 Pacific Waters	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	9mo	$199,999	$159	68
3841 Low Tide	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	10mo	$176,899	$140	64
3829 Low Tide	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	9mo	$199,999	$159	63
3817 Low Tide	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-1%)	9mo	$203,999	$162	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-78,835
• Equity at exit: $40,017

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-118,481
• Equity at exit: $23,205

Cash invested: $75,148 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,490 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 883 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,407
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,026/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $191,674

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-345	-5% $-437	+0% $-530	+5% $-623	+10% $-716
Rent	-10% $-663	-5% $-596	+0% $-530	+5% $-464	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-395	-0.5pp $-462	base $-530	+0.5pp $-600	+1.0pp $-670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,097
• Closing costs: $8,052
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	41d	1	0.08mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	51d	1	0.08mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,575	$1.05	9d	1	0.08mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,576	$1.07	22d	1	0.31mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,510	$1.02	25d	1	0.31mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,773	$1.06	20d	1	0.42mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,495	$1.01	9d	1	0.53mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,799	$0.96	9d	1	0.54mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	60d	1	0.55mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,419	$0.96	29d	1	0.58mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	46d	1	0.58mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,695	$1.02	9d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $234,490 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $234,490 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $234,490 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $234,490 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $234,490 Active 339 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $234,490 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $234,490 Active 335 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $234,490 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $234,490 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $234,490 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $234,490 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $234,490 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $234,490 Active 327 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $234,490 Active 326 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $234,490 Active 325 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $234,490 Active 323 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $234,490 Active 322 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $234,490 Active 321 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $234,490 Active 320 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $234,490 Active 319 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $234,490 Active 318 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $234,490 Active 317 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $234,490 Active 316 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $234,490 Active 315 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $234,490 Active 314 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $234,490 Active 312 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $234,490 Active 311 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $234,490 Active 310 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $234,490 Active 308 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $234,490 Active 307 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $234,490 Active 306 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $234,490 Active 305 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $234,490 Active 304 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $234,490 Active 303 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $234,490 Active 302 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $234,490 Active 301 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $234,490 Active 299 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $234,490 Active 297 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $234,490 Active 296 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $234,490 Active 293 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $234,490 Active 292 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $234,490 Active 291 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $234,490 Active 290 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $234,490 Active 288 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $234,490 Active 287 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $234,490 Active 284 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,490 Active 283 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,490 Active 282 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $234,490 Active 279 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,490 Active 278 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,034
• − Property taxes: −$4,026
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$7,808
• Taxable loss: −$11,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,714
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,380–$19,140 screening

The Kemp Plan in Seguin, TX is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and potential for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro J H C- TX #378/1,662 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $234,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $233,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-30 Listed $236,990 Zillow