4015 Timothy Dr · Abingdon, MD 21009

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1987 9,016 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful home with a fenced in yard and a private driveway. The open floor plan includes the kitchen, living room and dining room with tall ceilings and lots of natural light from the windows all around. A separate laundry room allows extra storage. The hall bathroom includes a full tub and shower . The spacious primary bedroom ensuite has a large full bathroom and a private entrance that leads to the yard. Enjoy the outdoors from the front porch, side and large rear decks, and the flat yard. This property is in a convenient location with easy commute to Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Bel Air, Havre De Grace, and White Marsh. Make it your home or add to your investment portfolio, either is a perfect option with this property. Similar properties rented for $1700 per month. Seller financing is also available.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Storage shed
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking with 2 spaces (plus 2 total garage/parking spaces counted)
• Utilities: Central air conditioning (electric); Heat pump heating (electric); Electric hot water; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story entry level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Shed on the property; Multiple access exits (2+)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove; Range hood; Eat-in kitchen with island
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Open floor plan with combination kitchen/dining and combination dining/living areas; Breakfast area; Family room off the kitchen; Kitchen island; Dining area; Pantry; Master bathroom; Tub/shower; Walk-in closets; Entry-level bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in-unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Abingdon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgewood Middle (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 999 students, 72% FRL); Edgewood High (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,415 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 24% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask is 39% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $175k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,475 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1206 Abinchar Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	16mo	$59,000	$60	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,510
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $67,997
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,196/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $426	+0% $359	+5% $293	+10% $226
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $270	+0% $359	+5% $449	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $419	base $359	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Independence Sq Belcamp, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,950	$1.69	45d	1	1.05mi
1303 Sandwort Ct #102 Belcamp, MD	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,200	$1.79	19d	1	1.05mi
1300 Liriope Ct Belcamp, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,249	$2.31	45d	32	1.06mi
1300 Liriope Ct Belcamp, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,280	$2.34	4d	19	1.06mi
1402 Golden Rod Ct #5 Belcamp, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	45d	1	1.31mi
1335 Stockett Sq Belcamp, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,950	$1.69	45d	1	1.32mi
4203 Chapel Gate Pl Belcamp, MD	3.0	2.5	1236	$2,419	$1.96	5d	1	1.35mi
4401 Sanford Ct Belcamp, MD	2.0	1.0	868	$2,000	$2.30	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $235,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $235,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,879 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$683/yr (+$57/mo · 57.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,196
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $458
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $4,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Abingdon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abingdon, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 33,679
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+263.0% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-15 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-05 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $54,750 Public Records
• 2018-01-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-01-06 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-14 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-14 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-11-29 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-11-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-11-20 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-10-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-25 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-10-19 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-10-17 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-10-05 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-09-25 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-09-25 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-30 Sold (MLS) $84,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-12-30 Sold (MLS) $84,000 MRIS
• 2013-12-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-12-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-28 Price Changed $94,900 MRIS
• 2013-06-07 Listed $99,900 MRIS
• 2013-06-06 Listed $94,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-02-07 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MRIS
• 2005-12-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-08-26 Listed $100,000 MRIS
• 2002-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-28 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MRIS
• 2002-05-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-04-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-04-09 Listed $91,900 MRIS
• 2002-02-01 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-31 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MRIS
• 1998-11-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-01-07 Listed $84,852 MRIS
• 1997-08-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 1997-04-22 Listed — MRIS
• 1990-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $64,735 Public Records
• 1988-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $64,735 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,196 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.